Follow us on social

By the numbers: US missile capacity depleting fast

By the numbers: US missile capacity depleting fast

Our industrial base isn't keeping up with the pace of weapons transfers to Ukraine and Israel

Military Industrial Complex

Regardless of the merits or demerits of the Biden administration’s policies on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the wider Middle East, it has become clear that the United States has been using and giving away its missiles faster than it can produce them.

It is also clear that from the perspective of missile inventories and production, the United States is far from prepared to engage confidently in a sustained direct conflict with a peer competitor like China.

This is demonstrated by the fact that U.S. missile and artillery shell reserves are currently inadequate to provide Ukraine with what it needs to keep its missile defense systems supplied with interceptors. Indeed, the inability of the United States and its NATO allies to provide enough air defense missiles — a.k.a. interceptors — has made it easier for Russia to attack and destroy key military targets, as well as cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

This missile deficit parallels the well-documented lack of U.S. artillery shell production that has enabled Russia to increase the rate at which it’s taking control over territories in Ukraine today.

While the United States is not going to run out of missiles tomorrow, its missile inventory, both offensive and defensive, is dwindling. Further, although the U.S. government has not disclosed how many interceptor missiles have been given to Ukraine to supply the billions of dollars’ worth of NASAM, Hawk, and Patriot air defense systems Washington sent there, we do know that it has not been enough.

We also know that between Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, some 740 Patriot PAC-2/PAC-3 missiles per year will be made in 2025, with production theoretically ramping up to roughly 1,100 missiles by 2027. That sounds like a lot, but since February 22, 2022, Ukraine has faced attacks from thousands of drones and missiles.

Moreover, while our proxy war on Russia has strained our resources, an outbreak of hostilities with China could easily increase the burn rate of our ship-based missiles by an order of magnitude over what we have been seeing in the Middle East. And speaking of our supply of ship-based missiles, as of Feb 1, 2024, the U.S. Navy had used at least 100 of its standard series class missiles in the Red Sea.

A July 2024 report reveals that the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier strike group expended 155 multi-million-dollar standard series missiles, 135 multi-million-dollar Tomahawk cruise missiles, 60 multi-million dollar air-to-air missiles, and an additional 420 air-to-surface munitions with a cumulative cost likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars And this missile expenditure does not include the missiles used by warships not attached to that strike group during this period.

Naturally, since July, the Navy has continued to use overpriced, ridiculously expensive missiles to shoot down cheap Houthis drones and missiles. Adding to our Navy’s missile burn rate, on at least two occasions, April and October of this year, our warships used SM-2 and SM-3 missiles to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. Additionally, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Navy has been using the much more expensive SM-6 missiles, along with SM-2s, in its Red Sea operations.

We don’t really know how many missiles have been used to date, but what has been publicly disclosed should be viewed as a very conservative estimate. In addition, we don’t know the exact inventory levels of critical weapons, as such information could be of great use to our enemies. However, according to a report by the Heritage Foundation, up through 2023, the Pentagon had procured roughly 12,000 Standard Missile-2s (SM-2), 400 Standard Missile-3s (SM-3), 1,500 Standard Missile-6s (SM-6), and 9,000 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM). During this same period, the U.S. Navy has expended at least 2,800 Standard Missiles and 2,900 TLAMs. And these figures do not include the previously mentioned expenditures of the last year or so.

Shedding more light on roughly what our current reserves of missiles looks like, the Wall Street Journal estimates that when training exercises and the retirement of older weapons are taken into account, only about 4,000 TLAM remained as of 2020 and since then the U.S. has only produced another 250 or so TLAMs. Consequently, with large numbers of TLAMS, SM-2 and other SM-type missiles having been expended in 2023 and 2024, our nation’s missile stockpile continues to be depleted.

Put another way, the entirety of our Navy’s warships, not including quad packs of shorter-ranged air defense missiles, can carry about 10,000 missiles in their vertical launch systems that can be used for wide-area defense or long-range attacks. So, as things stand, once we expend the full complement of our VLS launched missiles, we are roughly 3,000 missiles short of being able to fully replenish our ships.

Yet another aspect of how much stress could potentially be placed on our missile inventories is that, while we do have a relatively large number of SM-2 missiles, we only have some 400 SM-3 class missiles, the defense system most capable of destroying powerful ballistic missiles before they can threaten population centers or military targets.

And in April of this year, two of our Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers used four to seven of these scarce SM-3 missiles to attempt the interception of ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Each of the SM-3s, depending on the model, costs between $13 and $28 million. Hence, that one engagement cost U.S. taxpayers in the neighborhood of $52M to $196M.

Of course, U.S. supplementation of Israel’s defenses has not been limited to expending shipborne missiles. On October 21, Israel received one of the United States’ seven THAAD air defense systems. Each of these systems costs over a billion dollars, and each THAAD interceptor missile costs $13 million. Given that the full load for the THAAD system we sent to Israel is 48 missiles, it is safe to assume Israel has received a minimum of $600 million dollars’ worth of interceptors.

For reference, as of December of 2023, the U.S. had built some 800 of these interceptors. This means if Israel ends up receiving a few reloads, we could easily see 25 percent of our THAAD interceptors inventory consumed at a replacement cost of $2.5 billion.

What’s more, as of 2023, Iran is believed to have over 3,000 ballistic missiles and many thousands of drones. Consequently, Iran could launch even larger attacks in the near future, necessitating the deployment of additional U.S. systems to supplement Israel’s strained air defenses to an even greater extent.

However, all of the above would amount to chump change should the United States become embroiled in a war with China. If such a disaster were to occur, Washington could easily find itself blowing through its missile stocks in a matter of months or even weeks. Indeed, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report found that, in order to counter China, the United States could end up expending 5,000 long-range missiles in just 3 weeks.

Consequently, with our defense industrial base already strained, it seems obvious that we should be doing everything we can to prevent escalation of the ongoing conflicts and instead be working to achieve a genuine, sustainable peace in the Middle East, as well as working towards a peace in the Ukraine war.


Top photo credit: Sailors lift ammunition during an on-load aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110). William P. Lawrence is underway on its first operational deployment to the western Pacific region as part of the Nimitz Strike Group Surface Action Group. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Carla Ocampo) File# 130126-N-ZQ631-628
Military Industrial Complex
Ron Paul (R-Tx.) and John McCain (R-Az.)
Top Image Credit: US presidential candidate US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) (L) makes his point as US Senator John McCain (R-AZ ) adjusts his shirt collar as they take part in the CNN/Los Angeles Times Republican presidential debate at Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California January 30, 2008. Air Force One used by Reagan is in background. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008 (USA)

How Ron Paul took a battering ram to GOP foreign policy

Washington Politics

Ron Paul is turning 90 on August 20. At 72, he was a revolutionary.

Today, there is a raucous foreign policy debate within the Republican Party. Populist, realist and libertarian “America First” Republicans argue against endless wars and for fiscal responsibility, while holdover hawks continue to insist on a robust U.S. hand and military presence anywhere they can get it, no matter the cost.

keep readingShow less
British Royal Navy
Top photo credit: Launch of Duncan on the Clyde in Scotland MOD, Royal Navy, 2010. (Ian Arthur/MOD/Wikimedia)

Secretary's remark that UK 'will fight' China is a dip into crazy town

Asia-Pacific

Having spent the past decade telling the British public that Russia poses the biggest ‘immediate threat’ to the United Kingdom, the idea that Britain should get ready to fight China is idiotic and irresponsible.

During a visit to Australia to join HMS Prince of Wales, which is currently leading Carrier Strike Group 25 to Asia, UK Defense Secretary John Healey implied that the UK might be willing to fight China in the Pacific over Taiwan. “If we have to fight, as we have done in the past, Australia and the UK are nations that will fight together. We exercise together and by exercising together and being more ready to fight, we deter better together.”

keep readingShow less
Gaza starvation children
Top photo credit: Palestinian children suffering from malnutrition receive medical care at Al-Rantisi Children's Hospital, July 24, 2025, Gaza. Photo by Omar Ashtawy apaimages Gaza city Gaza Strip Palestinian Territory 240725_Gaza_OSH_0014 Copyright: xapaimagesxOmarxAshtawyxxapaimagesx

This isn't a 'war' — Israel is destroying a population

Middle East

The prospects for negotiating a ceasefire and an end to the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip appear as dim as ever. Israeli and U.S. representatives walked out of talks with Hamas in Qatar that had been mediated by the Qataris and Egyptians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about “alternative” means of achieving Israel’s goals in the territory.

President Donald Trump, echoing Netanyahu’s levying of blame on Hamas, asserted that “Hamas didn’t really want to make a deal. I think they want to die.” Trump went on to mention a need to “finish the job,” evidently referring to Israel’s continued devastating assault on the Strip and its residents.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.