Follow us on social

No Maverick appeal: Air Force misses recruitment goal for first time since 1999

No Maverick appeal: Air Force misses recruitment goal for first time since 1999

A crisis is bedeviling the military force-wide.

Analysis | QiOSK

Despite hopes that movies like “Top Gun: Maverick” would recapture the imagination of youth and open their minds to the possibility of high-flying military service, the U.S. Air Force has missed its recruitment goals for the first time since 1999.

This is part of a service-wide trend (Army and Navy included) that has so far only spared the Marines, which at 33,000 has much lower target numbers than the Army, for example, which missed its goal of 65,000 new recruits in May. It was the second year in a row the Army fell short.

But the active duty Air Force's failure to meet its goals is the first time in nearly a quarter century, presaging hard times to come. According to this report the active duty component fell just shy (90 percent) of its 26,877 goal, while its reserve and Air Guard fared worse, with 30 percent shortfalls in each.

Unlike the pre-9/11 days in 1999, which, despite small overseas operations against lesser rivals like Saddam Hussein, was considered peace time, military officials are worried about what these shortfalls mean for their ability to meet the current twin security challenges consistently identified by official Washington: Russia and China.

“The geopolitical landscape was so much different” in 1999, Air Force Recruiting Service boss Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein told reporters Wednesday.

“Missing this year is kind of at a critical point.”

Is there one reason for the slip in recruitment? The short answer is no. As we’ve said in these pages before, the theories are moving targets, sometimes partisan, and varied. Some observers point out that young people have more economic and educational opportunities today. Others have noted that the pool of eligible recruits is shrinking — young people are more obese, have been on therapeutic drugs (disqualifying), are in poor shape, and have histories of using recreational drugs/alcohol and bad behavior.

On the left, critics say the military continues to be racially biased and misogynistic (particularly at the leadership level; the percentage of women across the military has actually increased to over 17 percent, while the level of minorities is close to 40 percent of the total military population).

On the right, critics say the military has become too “woke,” overtaken by the civilian world’s culture and identity politics, and focused more on “diversity, equity, and inclusion” than preparing men and women for future wars.

But another theory transcends partisan politics. As the trust levels in government institutions (including the military) has eroded society-wide, so has the number of men and women willing to put their lives in the hands of Uncle Sam. After 20 years of failed war policies, a citizenry that feels lied to, swindled, and misled at every turn is less inclined to believe that their children won’t be used as toy soldiers in some future Washington political gambit overseas.

Whatever the reason, the recruitment crisis is real, and it is cutting across the grunts and “glamor boys.” If you believe a strong defense is necessary for the health of the nation, this is not good news, especially since the military doesn’t seem equipped to deal with this dicey, complicated question head-on.


Scene from 'Top Gun: Maverick" (Screengrab/Official Trailer/You Tube)
Analysis | QiOSK
Nuclear missile
Top image credit: Zack Frank

Put this nuclear missile on the back of a truck — but we still don't need it

Military Industrial Complex

Last week, analysts from three think tanks penned a joint op-ed for Breaking Defense to make the case for mobilizing the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, a pivot from one exceedingly costly approach to nuclear modernization to another.

After Sentinel faced a 37 percent cost overrun in early 2024, the Pentagon was forced to inform Congress of the cost spike, assess the root causes, and either cancel the program or certify it to move forward under a restructured approach. The Pentagon chose to certify it, but not before noting that the restructured program would actually come in 81 percent over budget.

keep readingShow less
Maduro, Trump
Top photo credit: Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro (Shutterstock/stringerAL) ; President Donald Trump (Shutterstock/a katz)

Why we need to take Trump's Drug War very seriously

Latin America

Donald Trump has long been a fan of using the U.S. military to wage a more vigorous war against drug cartels in Latin America. He also shows signs of using that justification as a pretext to oust regimes considered hostile to other U.S. interests.

The most recent incident in the administration’s escalating antidrug campaign took place on October 3 when “Secretary of War” Mike Hegseth announced that U.S. naval forces had sunk yet another small boat off of the coast of Venezuela. It was one of four destroyed vessels and a total of 21 people killed since late September. The administration claims they were all trying to ship illegal drugs to the United States.

keep readingShow less
Israel Gaza deal
Top photo credit: United States and Israel flags are projected on the walls of the Old city of Jerusalem in celebration after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza, October 9, 2025. REUTERS/Sinan Abu Mayzer

Will this deal work? Netanyahu has gamed everything his way so far.

Middle East

Two years into the Gaza conflict and perhaps on the cusp of a successful phased ceasefire, what can we say?

On the basis of media reporting about Yahya Sinwar’s strategic rationale for attacking Israel on October 7, 2023, it seems that he believed Israel was on the brink of civil war and that the impact of a large-scale assault would severely erode its political stability. He believed that Hamas’s erstwhile allies, especially Hizballah and Iran, would open offensives against Israel, which, in combination with Hamas’s invasion, would stretch the nation’s military capabilities to the breaking point.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.