At his Senate confirmation hearing for secretary of state on Wednesday morning, Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio called for an end to the war in Ukraine, including possible Ukrainian concessions to Russia.
Reflecting the views of his soon-to-be Commander in Chief Donald Trump, the Florida senator has become increasingly critical of the nearly three-year-long conflict in Ukraine, voting against a $95 billion Ukraine aid package in April of last year.
“I think it should be the official position of the United States that this war should be brought to an end,” Rubio said, while emphasizing the conflict’s collateral damages for Ukrainians. “The destruction that Ukraine is undergoing is extraordinary. It’s going to take a generation to rebuild it.,” he said.
“Millions of Ukrainians no longer live in Ukraine…how many of them are going to come back, and what are they going to come back to?” Rubio asked, noting that Ukraine’s infrastructure, especially energy infrastructure, has been decimated.
“The problem with Ukraine is not that they’re running out of money, but that they’re running out of people.”
Achieving an end to the war will not “be an easy endeavor… but it's going to require bold diplomacy, and my hope is that it can begin with some ceasefire,” Rubio said. “It’s important for everyone to be realistic: there will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by Ukrainians.”
Interestingly, Trump national security adviser pick Mike Waltz recently pushed for the Ukrainian draft age to be lowered from 26 to 18, arguing Ukraine must be “all in for democracy.”
But if he was emphasizing peace in Eastern Europe, Rubio was pushing something altogether different with China, calling “the Communist Party of China…the most potent and dangerous near peer adversary the United States has ever confronted.”
“We have to rebuild our domestic industrial capacity” to counter China, Rubio claimed. “If we don't change course, we are going to live in a world where much of what matters to us on a daily basis, from our security to our health, will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow us to have it or not.”
MUNICH, GERMANY — Last year, the Munich Security Conference was dominated by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. This time around, the Gaza War has remained a notable absence in Munich, at least on the confab’s main stage.
This was confirmed on Sunday, the last day of the conference, which was light on headlines amid the snowy Munich outside. The big news story Sunday didn't even originate from the conference, but in reports suggesting U.S. and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia next week for talks to end the Ukraine War without the participation of Ukraine or other European countries.
There was no mention of the Gaza War, nor the broader situation in the Middle East, in the speeches by Vice-President J.D. Vance, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, or (less surprisingly) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Yet one year ago, the conference was convened against the backdrop of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that Israeli troops would march into Rafah in search of “total victory.” At that time, at least 28,985 people had been killed in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, when 1,200 Israelis were killed and over 250 hostages were taken during a Hamas attack against Israel.
In the 2024 Munich Security Conference, then-EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell used his speech on the main stage to note that peace in the Middle East required “a prospect for the Palestinian people” and warned that Russia could exploit double standards’ accusations against Europe for its behavior vis-a-vis Ukraine and Gaza. One year afterwards, the official figure for casualties among the Gazan population stands at 46,707 (the real death toll is probably higher).
Borrell’s successor Kaja Kallas did not have a slot of her own for a speech at the conference. It was von der Leyen, contrary to last year, who provided on Friday an address to the audience for the European Union. Kallas, more aligned with von der Leyen than Borrell, has been far less outspoken about Gaza, focusing most of her attention on Ukraine. Her key message ahead of the Munich meeting was that the U.S. strategy towards Ukraine is one of “appeasement.” Once in Bavaria, she drew on the shopworn analogy to the 1938 Munich agreement to establish parallels between the Czech Republic back then and Ukraine nowadays. She said that “it is for us to support them [Ukraine] so that there would not be any World War.”
Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire holds in Gaza, with three Israeli hostages exchanged for 369 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday. Still, it remains unclear whether the current pause in fighting will continue in the near future.
As Washington resumes the delivery of heavy MK-84 bombs to the Israeli army, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Netanyahu today. Referring to the U.S., Netanyahu stated that "we have a common strategy" but "we can't always share the details of this strategy with the public, including when the gates of hell will be opened, as they surely will if all our hostages are not released until the last one of them."
Rubio was expected to advocate for President Donald Trump’s proposal to take control of the Gaza Strip and relocate its more than two million residents — in what would represent a further step in Israel’s ongoing ethnic cleansing campaign.
Although Trump’s exact intentions for Gaza are somewhat uncertain, Netanyahu has previously signaled approval for the president’s ideas. Prior to Rubio’s meeting with Netanyahu, the Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he hoped to see the relocation of the Palestinian population out of Gaza starting in the coming weeks.
In an event reserved to the press on Friday at the Munich Security Conference, relatives of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza explained they want the ceasefire to move to phase two. According to the plan, this second phase should see the release of the remaining hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Also on Friday, in a conversation during the conference, the Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said that those who supported Israel’s disengagement from the Gaza Strip in 2005 should be modest enough not to criticize Trump’s recent ideas about the future of Gaza, which he described as “new” and “original.” He added that “it is time to think differently from all the things that failed in the past.”
On Saturday, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Commissioner-General of UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini expressed his relief about the ceasefire continuing to hold in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages that day. Lazzarini, the head of the UN agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, denounced Israel’s anti-UNRWA campaign which has included billboards and commercial ads seeking to de-legitimize the agency’s work.
Lazzarini, speaking only meters away from where U.S. Senator and UNRWA opponent Lindsey Graham was standing after participating in a panel on NATO and the U.S., added that the agency is “a casualty of this war.” In January 2025, two laws approved by the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, entered into force banning UNRWA from operating in Israeli-occupied territories and prohibiting Israeli authorities from contacting UNRWA. Lazzarini noted the measures impact UNRWA’s work but do not prevent its activities.
The Munich Security Conference leaves European officials asking themselves what future relations with the U.S. will actually look like. In few countries are these doubts so obvious as in the host of the conference, Germany, only one week before national elections on February 23 that are likely to see Chancellor Olaf Scholz replaced by the centre-right contender Friedrich Merz.
In remarks likely welcomed by the demonstrators at the Odeonsplatz in central Munich demanding that Germany deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, Merz announced in a panel discussion that he would support providing these weapons to Ukraine in consultation with Germany’s European partners. According to a recent poll, 60% of Germans oppose delivering Taurus and this had been Scholz’s position on the matter.
In a comment that served as a recap of the Munich Security Conference, the conservative German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitungnoted that U.S. officials brought “devastating news for Germany and Europe this week.”
In the wake of that, Germany “seemed paralyzed.” This year’s conference will have something akin to an epilogue tomorrow, when French President Emmanuel Macron convenes the main European leaders in Paris in what the BBC describes as “an emergency summit on the war in Ukraine.”
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Top photo credit: Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference 2/15/25 (MSC/Angelika Warmuth.)
MUNICH, GERMANY — During his keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference today Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky repeated the need for a “European army” — also framed as “an Army of Europe.”
What this specifically means is unclear, but the Ukrainian leader delivered the message home, if we are to judge by the headlines of the main European newspapers this afternoon. Zelensky tried to further raise the stakes by saying that Ukraine has intelligence that next summer Russia plans to send troops to Belarus. On that, he noted: “Is this Russian force in Belarus meant to attack Ukraine? Maybe, or maybe not. Or maybe it's meant for you. Let me remind you, Belarus borders 3 NATO countries.”
Zelensky walked a tight line between not directly antagonizing the United States and making clear to European leaders that the continent’s security is up to them, not Washington and that they might very well be left alone.
“Let's be honest, now we can't rule out the possibility that America might say no to Europe on issues that threaten it,” he pointed out. Similarly, Zelensky asked: “Does America need Europe as a market? Yes, but as an ally? I don't know. For the answer to be yes, Europe needs a single voice, not a dozen different ones.”
Ret. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, at first appeared to have brought some clarity on some of the open questions regarding Europe’s role in future peace talks. Asked about whether Europe would be present at the planned talks, Kellogg said he was from “the school of realism, and that is not going to happen.” Later on, in a panel discussion, he was far less clear. It is also uncertain to which extent Kellogg is directly speaking for the White House, and European officials appear somewhat at a loss when seeking to tell apart Washington’s main messages to Europe from simple background noise.
Regardless of which course events take, there seems to be a lot of challenges facing NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has a reputation of knowing how to approach U.S. President Donald Trump. On Saturday, before Kellogg commented on Europe being off the negotiation table, Rutte seemed to know or guess where things might be going and positioned himself as the bridge between the European and the American pillars of NATO.
In a panel discussion, Rutte said: “To my European friends, I would say: get into the debate, not by complaining that you might, yes or no, be at the table, but by coming up with concrete proposals, ideas, ramp up [defense] spending.”
Before Zelensky’s address, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opened the day in what was most likely his last speech at the international meeting. Although he is running for re-election in Germany’s national elections next weekend, his center-left Social-Democratic Party (SPD) istrailing by 15 points in the polls the conservative Christian Democratic Union and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Scholz hasindicated he will retire from politics if he does not remain chancellor.
At the beginning of his speech, and in a reference to Vance’s address to the conference yesterday, Scholz said Germany will not accept people who “intervene in our democracy,” adding that “where our democracy goes from here is for us to decide.”Scholz then moved on to discuss how to fund increasing defense expenditures in Germany. Last November, the issue played a major role in the collapse of the German ruling coalition, made of Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP). The latter party pushed for cuts in social programs rather than taking new public debt (the option favored by the SPD and the Greens) to increase the military budget.
When Scholz fired FDP leader and then Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the government, the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, leading to the early elections to take place next weekend. Regarding the future of Ukraine, Scholz remarked that “there will only be peace if the sovereignty of Ukraine is assured, a dictated peace would therefore never get our support.” He added that “we will also not accept any solution that leads to decoupling European and American security.”
MUNICH, GERMANY — The Munich Security Conference started this Friday in a city recovering from an attack in which a suspect drove his car into a crowd of people, leaving 36 people injured on Thursday morning.
The international meeting also takes place against the backdrop of the German parliamentary elections on Feb. 23. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the center-right Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) — which comfortably leads the polls with around 30% of support — could be spotted in the first row of the conference hall. Merz held a short meeting with United States Vice President J.D. Vance earlier in the day.
Neither yesterday’s car attack, nor the coming elections, were left unaddressed by Vance in his speech Friday. The vice-president described the attack (committed by an Afghan asylum-seeker), as one of the “horrors wrought” by Europe's migration policies. He noted that “no voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants.” In addition, Vance expressed his fears that the German election results could be annulled, similar to the Romanian presidential elections in November.
Vance also accused European leaders of abandoning the core democratic values that led to the Soviet Union’s defeat in the Cold War. "The threat I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America," Vance said.
Although Vance had provided a preview to Friday’s remarks in an earlier Wall Street Journal interview, his words were received with some arched eyebrows in the media center serving as a working place for the journalists covering the conference. “Undiplomatic announcements” was the headline topping an article about Vance’s speech published by the liberal Munich newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The vice-president’s words also sent shockwaves in the conference hall. One of the first to respond was Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister. Pistorius, scheduled to speak less than two hours after Vance, described the vice-president words as “not acceptable.” He added that “democracy was called into question by the U.S. vice-president for the whole of Europe earlier.”
In the panel discussion that followed, which focused on Europe's defense policy, participants expressed bewilderment about the lack of attention to Ukraine in Vance’s speech.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen had taken a radically different approach earlier in the day focusing on what she sees as commonalities between the Trump administration’s approach to the Ukraine War and that of the EU. She noted that “both the EU and the U.S. want an end to the bloodshed. We want a just and lasting peace, one that leads to a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. And Ukraine should be given solid security guarantees.”
In another attempt to establish a bridge with the Trump administration, von der Leyen added: “Ukraine needs peace through strength. Europe wants peace through strength. And as President Trump has made clear: the United States is firmly committed to peace through strength.”
Asked about whether European countries would increase defense expenditure to 5% of the GDP as demanded by Trump (the U.S. currently allocates 3.4% of its GDP to such a purpose), the president of the European Commission did not want to provide a specific figure. Still, von der Leyen announced that the Commission plans to allow extra fiscal room to the EU member states by activating the escape clause for defense investments.
The EU’s GDP increased by only 0.9% in 2024 (with negative growth in Germany, the bloc’s largest economy). It remains to be seen whether European citizens will support lifting strict EU rules on public debt for defense spending (and not for social policies, for instance) at a time of low economic growth.
Von der Leyen’s conciliatory tone towards the U.S. regarding Ukraine contrasted with her remarks about Trump’s tariffs policies. Building on a statement released early Friday, the Commission president announced her preference for a negotiated solution to avoid a trade war between the U.S. and the EU but noted that, if needed, “we will use our tools to safeguard our economic security and interests.”
After rumors that the initially announced meeting might not take place after all, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a bilateral encounter with Vice President Vance in the evening. Before the meeting, the Ukrainian leader said that his country wants “security guarantees” before any talks to end the war. Zelenskyy also noted that he is only willing to have an in-person meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin after a common plan is negotiated with U.S. President Trump.
Meanwhile, CNN reported Friday that the Russian government is assembling a high-level negotiating team that would engage in direct talks with the United States to put an end to the war in Ukraine.
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