Follow us on social

Israel testing Egypt's 'weak hand' in Gaza conflict

Israel testing Egypt's 'weak hand' in Gaza conflict

The IDF now has full control of the Philadelphi Corridor on the border, but there is very little Cairo can do to respond.

Analysis | Middle East

Last month, the Israeli military declared that it had taken “tactical control” of the Philadelphi corridor, the strategically important nine-mile-long and 300-foot-wide buffer zone between Gaza and Egypt.

Israeli officials say that they took this action as part of an effort to decapitate Hamas roughly eight months into this war, claiming that the Palestinians have used this corridor to set up tunnels for funneling arms.

But these tunnels have been used to bring all types of goods and services, not just weapons, into Gaza — even if authorities in Egypt, which has officially been imposing its own blockade on Gaza since 2007, have not been openly admitting so. These tunnels connecting Egypt and Gaza have given the Palestinians in the besieged enclave some sort of a lifeline. Now the blockade will be even tighter and Gaza’s humanitarian disasters are only set to worsen.

“The direct control of the [Philadelphi corridor] by Israel means the complete encirclement of Gaza, which in prior years [the Israelis] left that one part of the borders to a joint Egyptian-Palestinian control. For Palestinians it denies them all hope of an Israel-free part of their borders,” Nabeel Khoury, former deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen, told RS.

“Israel’s takeover will make it that much harder for humanitarian aid to get through. Israel’s right wing is getting its desired goal here: Full encirclement of Palestinians and denial of all means of livelihood — in other words a step closer to driving out whoever is still alive once this war ends, if it ever does,” added the former US diplomat.

The situation in the Philadelphi corridor has potentially huge implications for the future Israel’s cold peace with Egypt. Overall, the past eight months of warfare in Gaza have created difficult dilemmas for Egypt’s government.

Officials in Cairo have spent months sounding the alarm about the Israeli military’s advance toward the Egypt-Gaza border, fearing that this war will drive Palestinians into Egyptian territory. At the same time, President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi’s government has been seeking to avoid an escalation of tensions with Israel’s government while simultaneously trying to keep a lid on growing anger among Egyptian citizens who are staunchly pro-Palestinian.

In taking control of the Philadelphi corridor, Israel is violating the 1979 peace accord with Egypt, further complicating its already frosty relationship with Cairo. Egypt and Israel’s peace accord permits each side to deploy a small military or border security presence in this demilitarized zone, yet only through a mutual agreement can the number of troops in the Philadelphi corridor to be adjusted. At the time of the peace accord’s implementation in 1979, Israel had been occupying Gaza with troops on the ground since 1967. Those Israeli military forces as well as Israeli settlers didn’t withdraw from the coastal enclave until 2005.

“An already icy relationship is heading for deep freeze,” is how Patrick Theros, the former U.S. Ambassador to Qatar, described the state of Egyptian-Israeli affairs in an interview with RS. “Neither government has an interest in breaking the formal ties between the two countries. Internal pressures have mounted in Egypt and will only get worse. The current regime in Cairo has shown it can suppress demonstrations effectively, but there has to be a point where Sisi must do something to placate public opinion. I don't know when, where, or what. But it must come,” added Theros.

On May 24, two Egyptian soldiers died amid a clash between the Egyptian and Israeli militaries near the Egypt-Gaza border. Although both Cairo and Tel Aviv took quick steps to contain potential fallout from the deadly episode, the clash illustrated the fragility of Egyptian-Israeli relations amid this volatile period. As demonstrated by the reactions on social media, the Egyptian soldiers’ deaths also led to increased rage among the Egyptian public.

Egypt’s weaknesses

Israel’s control of the Philadelphi Corridor and, more broadly, the war in Gaza have put Egypt’s government under much pressure from various sides. The overall situation has seemingly left the Sisi government feeling humiliated with its vulnerabilities increasingly exposed. Ultimately, with the Egyptian army heavily dependent on the U.S. for financial and military assistance and unable to credibly challenge the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), there is not much Egypt can do to counter Tel Aviv.

Yet, with its own population increasingly angry, Sisi can’t ignore domestic pressure at a time when other factors such as Egypt’s deteriorated economy challenge his regime’s stability and legitimacy.

“[The Gaza] crisis has highlighted Egypt’s weak hand. It cannot threaten Israel with anything Israelis will take seriously without threatening U.S. ties and assistance. It cannot do the only thing the Israelis have demanded of Egypt: accepting the millions of Gazans Israel wants to expel from the Gaza Strip. Other than maintaining the status quo, Egypt has nothing to offer. It has connectivity with Hamas in Gaza, but the Israelis do not value that,” Theros told RS.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows to continue this war until Hamas is defeated, which could extend the fighting into 2025. Yet prolonged warfare in Gaza and more Palestinian suffering in the enclave means that Egypt’s leadership will face intensified pressure from its own population, especially if Palestinians in large number flee Gaza for the Sinai or if trigger-happy IDF troops kill more Egyptian soldiers. How these scenarios would impact the Camp David Accord remains an open question.

What is clear, however, is that the government in Cairo wants this war in Gaza to end as soon as possible to relieve the Sisi regime of these pressures. This is why Egypt is working hard with Qatar to broker a lasting ceasefire. Unfortunately, Cairo and Doha’s diplomatic efforts to bring this horrific war to an end have yet to prove successful. Until that outcome is achieved, Egypt’s government will continue to remain extremely vulnerable and appear weak.


Displaced Palestinians from Al-Doaa family take shelter at the border with Egypt, during an Israeli military operation, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, May 29, 2024. REUTERS/Doaa Rouqa

Analysis | Middle East
 Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Sudan
Top image credit: Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan gestures to soldiers inside the presidential palace after the Sudanese army said it had taken control of the building, in the capital Khartoum, Sudan March 26, 2025. Sudan Transitional Sovereignty Council/Handout via REUTERS

Saudi Arabia chooses sides in Sudan's civil war

Africa

In the final days of Ramadan, before Mecca's Grand Mosque, Sudan's de facto president and army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan knelt in prayer beside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Al-Burhan had arrived in the kingdom just two days after his troops dealt a significant blow to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), recapturing the capital Khartoum after two years of civil war. Missing from the frame was the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Gulf power that has backed al-Burhan’s rivals in Sudan’s civil war with arms, mercenaries, and political cover.

The scene captured the essence of a deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE — once allies in reshaping the Arab world, now architects of competing visions for Sudan and the region.

For two years, Sudan has been enveloped in chaos. The conflict that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed forces (SAF) and the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti," has inflicted immense suffering: an estimated 150,000 killed, allegations of mass atrocities staining both sides but particularly the RSF in Darfur, 12 million displaced, and over half the population facing acute food insecurity.

keep readingShow less
Donald Trump Massad Boulos
Top image credit: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump is joined by Massad Boulos, who was recently named as a 'senior advisor to the President on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs,' during a campaign stop at the Great Commoner restaurant in Dearborn, Michigan, U.S., on November 1, 2024. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

Trump tasks first time envoy with the most complex Africa conflict

Africa

As the war between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and allied militias against the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group continues, the Trump administration is reportedly tapping Massad Boulos as the State Department’s special envoy to the African Great Lakes region.

In this capacity, Boulos will be responsible for leading the American diplomatic effort to bring long-desired stability to the region and to end a conflict that has been raging in the eastern DRC for decades.

keep readingShow less
Sens. Paul and Merkley to Trump: Are we 'stumbling' into another war?
Top photo credit: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky) (Gage Skidmore /Creative Commons) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) )( USDA photo by Preston Keres)

Sens. Paul and Merkley to Trump: Are we 'stumbling' into another war?

QiOSK

Senators Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) have co-written a letter to the White House, demanding to know the administration’s strategy behind the now-18 days of airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen.

The letter calls into question the supposed intent of these strikes “to establish deterrence,” acknowledging that neither the Biden administration’s strikes in October 2023, nor the years-long bombing campaign by Saudi Arabia from 2014 to 2020, were successful in debilitating the military organization's military capabilities.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.