Follow us on social

20220523_fumio_kishida_and_joe_biden_24

Japan's Kishida comes to town with emboldened defense strategy

Hopefully, more than just Tokyo's massive new military spending will be on the agenda when the PM meets with Biden on Friday.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

When Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets with President Biden in Washington this week, he will no doubt emphasize his efforts to bolster Japanese defense capabilities and tighten the U.S.-Japan alliance. 

Kishida, who will be meeting with Biden on Friday after a whirlwind trip through Europe and Canada, will report on how he expects Japan to improve the mobility and resilience of its defense forces, and how its military will acquire counterstrike capabilities to complement U.S. military power. 

In addition, the prime minister will confirm his decision to increase spending to about 43 trillion yen (about $326 billion) under the new defense build-up program during fiscal years 2023-2027 —which is more than a 56 percent jump over the previous five-year period for 2019-2023. 

President Biden will of course welcome these transformative changes in Japan’s defense policy.

But Kishida should also use the upcoming bilateral summit to hold a frank and substantive discussion about the role of diplomacy in dealing with critical security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. Although Japan’s National Security Strategy released in December mentions China as “the greatest strategic challenge in ensuring the peace and security of Japan and the peace and stability of the international community,” what is missing in this document is a concrete diplomatic strategy to address one of the greatest security challenges in the region: the danger of military conflict across the Taiwan Strait. 

Japan’s new National Security Strategy only vaguely states that “Japan will continue to make various efforts based on its position that cross-strait issues are expected to be resolved peacefully.”

Given the geographic proximity of Japan to Taiwan, Japan’s acquisition of new stand-off counter-strike missile capabilities, as well as the enhanced mobility and resilience of its defense forces, will complicate Chinese military planning and encourage Beijing to be more hesitant about using military force to reunify Taiwan with China.

Although military deterrence is essential, it is by no means sufficient to reduce the risk of war over Taiwan. Unless accompanied by an effective diplomatic strategy, the enhancement of military deterrence could exacerbate cross-strait tensions by provoking further threatening responses from China and convincing the Chinese leadership that the only way to resolve the Taiwan issue is through military force.

In order to prevent a war over Taiwan, therefore, one must distinguish between Chinese motives and intentions.

China’s motives in preventing the permanent separation of Taiwan from China and reunifying Taiwan with China are immutable. They are the core interests of both China’s leadership and people. But there is room for flexibility regarding China’s intentions when it comes to the timing of Taiwan’s reunification with China and the use of military force. 

The goal of U.S. and Japanese policy should be to encourage China’s patience regarding Taiwan and its pursuit of peaceful means for resolving the Taiwan issue. To do so, Kishida should ask Biden to work together on the following three points. First, Tokyo and Washington should give Beijing credible reassurances about their Taiwan policies as well as buttressing their deterrence capabilities. The U.S. National Security Strategy released in October began to move in this direction when it stated that the United States does not support Taiwan independence. But Japan’s National Security Strategy was much less explicit by only noting that “Japan’s basic position regarding Taiwan remains unchanged.” 

To reassure Beijing that Tokyo and Washington remain committed to their One China policies, Kishida and Biden should issue a joint statement that neither Japan nor the United States supports Taiwan's independence in addition to reasserting that they welcome a peaceful resolution to cross-strait differences and oppose unilateral changes to the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait. And Japanese and American leaders should remind their counterparts in Taiwan that the best way for Taipei to protect its diplomatic space and expand its participation in international bodies is to mitigate tensions between itself and China.

Second, both Japan and the United States should devote more energy to stabilizing and improving their respective bilateral relationships with China. Both countries should seize opportunities for cooperation with China to deal with the critical global challenges of climate change and public health, as well as to address North Korea’s alarming missile tests and nuclear programs. Kishida should also express to Biden his reservations about simplistically dividing the world into two opposing camps of democracies versus autocracies. 

In the long run, such a Manichean approach to foreign policy will undermine the international expansion of universal values of freedom, democracy, and fundamental human rights. 

Third, while continuing to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific maritime region, Japan and the United States should revive their vision of an open and inclusive Asia-Pacific region. Kishida should emphasize to Biden that the countries of Asia want to avoid having to choose between the United States and China and that they prefer a more moderate U.S.-China strategic competition.

In the spirit of open and prosperous regionalism, Kishida should convey his hope that China as well as Taiwan will meet the high standards of accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. By building on the legacy of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum whereby Beijing accepted Taiwan’s membership in APEC as an economic region under the name China-Taipei, such a development would contribute to improving cross-strait relations. 

Given Tokyo’s habit of deferring to Washington on important security issues because of Japan’s dependence on the U.S. defense commitment, Kishida might feel uncomfortable about raising the above points with Biden — especially in light of the strong anti-China sentiment now prevalent in Washington. But he must muster the courage to engage in such straight talk with Biden because the stakes are so especially high for Japan.

A war over Taiwan would engulf Japan with devastating consequences. Moreover, Kishida has earned the right to voice his concerns about U.S. policy toward China because of the tough decisions he has made to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities and U.S.-Japan alliance coordination. Biden might even welcome this candid advice from a trusted and indispensable ally because it could increase his leverage to resist those in the United States pushing for even more hostile and indeed more reckless policies toward China.


Prime Minister Kishida held a summit meeting and other events with President Biden of the United States at the Akasaka Palace State Guest House. (May 23, 2022) (Government of Japan/Wikimedia Commons)
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Trump Vance Rubio
Top image credit: President Donald Trump meets with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance before a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Monday, August 18, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

The roots of Trump's wars on terror trace back to 9/11

Global Crises

The U.S. military recently launched a plainly illegal strike on a small civilian Venezuelan boat that President Trump claims was a successful hit on “narcoterrorists.” Vice President JD Vance responded to allegations that the strike was a war crime by saying, “I don’t give a shit what you call it,” insisting this was the “highest and best use of the military.”

This is only the latest troubling development in the Trump administration’s attempt to repurpose “War on Terror” mechanisms to use the military against cartels and to expedite his much vaunted mass deportation campaign, which he says is necessary because of an "invasion" at the border.

keep readingShow less
President Trump with reporters
Top photo credit: President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Sunday, September 7, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

Is Israel forcing Trump to be the capitulator in chief?

Middle East

President Donald Trump told reporters outside a Washington restaurant Tuesday evening that he is deeply displeased with Israel’s bombardment of Qatar, a close U.S. partner in the Persian Gulf that, at Washington’s request, has hosted Hamas’s political leadership since 2012.

“I am not thrilled about it. I am not thrilled about the whole situation,” Trump said, denying that Israel had given him advance notice. “I was very unhappy about it, very unhappy about every aspect of it,” he continued. “We’ve got to get the hostages back. But I was very unhappy with the way that went down.”

keep readingShow less
Europe Ukraine
Top image credit: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, President of Ukraine, Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK, and Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, emerge from St. Mary's Palace for a press conference as part of the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kiev, May 10 2025, Kay Nietfeld/dpa via Reuters Connect

Is Europe deliberately sabotaging Ukraine War negotiations?

Europe

After last week’s meeting of the “coalition of the willing” in Paris, 26 countries have supposedly agreed to contribute — in some fashion — to a military force that would be deployed on Ukrainian soil after hostilities have concluded.

Three weeks prior, at the Anchorage leaders’ summit press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Ukraine’s security should be ensured as part of any negotiated settlement. But Russian officials have continued to reiterate that this cannot take the form of Western combat forces stationed in Ukraine. In the wake of last week’s meeting, Putin has upped the ante by declaring that any such troops would be legitimate targets for the Russian military.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.