Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1304174374-scaled

Russia's self-defeating move in pausing nuke talks with US

Moscow appears to be trying to pressure Washington on Ukraine but abandoning New START would carry wider security risks.

Analysis | Global Crises

Russia’s announcement on November 28 that it would postpone arms control talks with the United States was yet another signal that its current leadership is choosing a path detrimental to arms control, de-escalation, and peace.

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, resumption of bilateral talks and subsequent negotiations for a follow-on to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, remain a crucial avenue to maintain stability between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.

Earlier this month, the United States and Russia announced plans to once again meet under the auspices of New START’s Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC), which last met in 2021. The treaty restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 1,550 each and was extended last year until 2026. The announcement raised hopes that arms control conversations would not be poisoned by Russia’s invasion.

While initially indicating that new dates would soon be announced, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that these talks could not be removed from “geopolitical realities.” This argument appears to be a nod to Russia’s real reason for postponing the talks: Its war in Ukraine has gone disastrously wrong, and Moscow seeks to pressure the United States and its allies to decrease support for Ukraine by leveraging the West’s obvious interest in the health of a treaty critical to international security. This move is yet another indication of Russia’s growing desperation due to its military failures in Ukraine — a dangerous strategy destined to fail. 

To Zakharova’s point, a BCC meeting would take place within the context of certain geopolitical realities. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric around the potential use of nuclear weapons aims to exploit fears about potential escalation to further Russian war aims. Though the saber rattling has died down recently, the mere suggestion that Russia could use nuclear weapons highlights the importance of maintaining arms control dialogue between the United States and Russia, and with all nuclear-armed states.

Arms control agreements are not just about limits on arsenals and mutual verification. They also help maintain channels of contact between would-be adversaries and preserve opportunities for de-escalation. Most bilateral and multilateral agreements include fora for discussion among the signatories as well as mechanisms to ensure mutual compliance. Examples include the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Review Conference, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty’s Special Verification Commission, and, of course, the BCC. 

Both the United States and Russia have benefited from these fora in the past. For example, at the time it was negotiated, the INF Treaty eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons and its consultative mechanism allowed for questions about compliance to be discussed. When this was no longer effective, Russian violations led to the treaty's collapse.

In the context of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, both parties stand to benefit from the limits New START places on their respective nuclear forces and visibility into modernization efforts it enables through on-site inspections. Additionally, without New START, Russia may have the most to lose in a renewed arms race, considering a renewed arms build-up would likely involve the United States as well as China.

Russia’s recent military setbacks and loss of skilled workers due to the war hinder its ability to compete in a future arms race. Reporting suggests some 350,000 people have fled Russia following the mobilization order to bolster dwindling army ranks. Internal Russian reports suggest fears of sanctions negatively affecting long-term growth. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Russian economy may contract by 3.9 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year. While not catastrophic, this trend is worrisome in the long term and shows Russia’s weakened position as a world power. Russia’s flailing invasion of Ukraine and current position in the ongoing war continues to capture international attention, which Russia would undoubtedly like to deflect.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov blamed the postponement of the talks on U.S. officials’ unwillingness to take “Russian priorities” into account. Ryabkov further claimed the United States was only interested in restarting on-site inspections and unwilling to discuss specifics about the weapons count under New START. Unsurprisingly, this is a red herring from the Kremlin. On-site inspections, which have been paused since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, are not contingent on a BCC meeting and could be restarted without one. The issues cited by Ryabkov about weapons counts, however, would be among those normally covered at a BCC — thus, if weapons counts were Russia’s real issue, the Kremlin would want a BCC meeting.

As other voices have pointed out, the clock for New START is undeniably ticking. Given the state of Russia’s economy, its military losses, and international isolation, it would benefit Russian leadership to rethink its current approach to arms control and reinvest in New START, before the clock runs out. 


Image: rawf8 via shutterstock.com
Analysis | Global Crises
American Special Operations
Top image credit: (shutterstock/FabrikaSimf)

American cult: Why our special ops need a reset

Military Industrial Complex

This article is the latest installment in our Quincy Institute/Responsible Statecraft project series highlighting the writing and reporting of U.S. military veterans. Click here for more information.

America’s post-9/11 conflicts have left indelible imprints on our society and our military. In some cases, these changes were so gradual that few noticed the change, except as snapshots in time.

keep readingShow less
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Benjamin Netanyahu
Top photo credit: President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Shutterstock/ Mustafa Kirazli) and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Salty View/Shutterstock)
Is Turkey's big break with Israel for real?

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

Middle East

As the distribution of power shifts in the region, with Iran losing relative power and Israel and Turkey emerging on top, an intensified rivalry between Tel Aviv and Ankara is not a question of if, but how. It is not a question of whether they choose the rivalry, but how they choose to react to it: through confrontation or peaceful management.

As I describe in Treacherous Alliance, a similar situation emerged after the end of the Cold War: The collapse of the Soviet Union dramatically changed the global distribution of power, and the defeat of Saddam's Iraq in the Persian Gulf War reshuffled the regional geopolitical deck. A nascent bipolar regional structure took shape with Iran and Israel emerging as the two main powers with no effective buffer between them (since Iraq had been defeated). The Israelis acted on this first, inverting the strategy that had guided them for the previous decades: The Doctrine of the Periphery. According to this doctrine, Israel would build alliances with the non-Arab states in its periphery (Iran, Turkey, and Ethiopia) to balance the Arab powers in its vicinity (Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, respectively).

keep readingShow less
Havana, Cuba
Top Image Credit: Havana, Cuba, 2019. (CLWphoto/Shutterstock)

Trump lifted sanctions on Syria. Now do Cuba.

North America

President Trump’s new National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) on Cuba, announced on June 30, reaffirms the policy of sanctions and hostility he articulated at the start of his first term in office. In fact, the new NSPM is almost identical to the old one.

The policy’s stated purpose is to “improve human rights, encourage the rule of law, foster free markets and free enterprise, and promote democracy” by restricting financial flows to the Cuban government. It reaffirms Trump’s support for the 1996 Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, which explicitly requires regime change — that Cuba become a multiparty democracy with a free market economy (among other conditions) before the U.S. embargo will be lifted.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.