Follow us on social

2021-09-29t105446z_999995408_rc2mzp9luste_rtrmadp_3_japan-politics-newser-scaled-e1655040540477

What new leadership in Japan will mean for US, regional relations

UPDATE: Fumio Kishida, officially elected prime minister today in a parliamentary vote, may seek more independence from Washington.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

UPDATE 10/4, 5 a.m. EST: Fumio Kishida was officially elected Japan's 100th prime minister in a parliamentary vote Monday.

Having won the leadership battle to head Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in late September, Fumio Kishida will likely emerge as the country’s next prime minister. While Kishida’s immediate task will be to ensure the LDP wins next month's parliamentary election decisively so that he can stave off the curse of revolving door prime ministers, Japanese leadership will come under ever more pressure now to define its relations with Washington, as well as with Beijing.

For the United States, having a politically stable Japan is a critical part of its own strategy in the Indo-Pacific. As a security treaty ally that was also instrumental in keeping the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement alive even after Washington’s withdrawal, Tokyo has been steadfast in its support for the United States in its interests across the region, and that relationship has strengthened further with the emergence of the Quad as an anchor for regional cooperation.

That said, when it comes to foreign policy, there may be greater divergence in interest between Japan and the United States moving forward under Kishida’s leadership. Granted, as a former foreign minister from 2012 to 2017 under Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Kishida himself is a relatively familiar face within Washington’s Asia policy circle. But while Japan’s foreign policy under Abe had been defined by promoting strong relations not only with the United States but also China, Kishida will be increasingly pressured to align more with one side or the other amid ever-growing strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.

While one of Abe’s crowning achievements over his eight years in office was to maintain cordial relations with President Trump while improving relations with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, the rapidly shifting dynamics in the region will require more from Japan to contribute to regional stability. As Abe’s foreign minister, Kishida has been deeply immersed in the longer-term vision of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. With the emergence of the Quad as a force that binds the region’s biggest democracies together, coupled with greater European commitment to engage, expectations for Tokyo to play a stronger role in the frontline of taking a stance against China is rapidly rising. U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has certainly added to the assumption that Washington, too, will be more willing and able to concentrate its resources in this arena.

Yet Japan’s position regarding China may not align so neatly with that of the United States, not to mention Tokyo’s confidence in U.S. commitment to the region more broadly. The latest LDP leadership elections saw much debate over the possibility of Tokyo increasing its defense spending from a current cap of 1 percent of GDP. While this may be a welcome development in Washington, it is a sign that Japan — shared across the ruling LDP leadership, including Kishida — is growing wary of its dependence on the U.S. security umbrella.

Kishida’s immediate concern, though, will focus on domestic matters rather than on the Indo-Pacific. Winning the upcoming general election and keeping hold of power will be on the top of his list, together with dealing with the ongoing pandemic and its after-effects. But as volatility in the region increases and expectations for Japan to be a regional stabilizer rise, Kishida will have no choice but to respond swiftly with policies to strengthen Tokyo’s position. But Washington should not assume that Kishida will continue to be in lockstep with Washington as Abe had been in light of the shifting realities of the United States as much as China. 


Former Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at the Liberal Democratic Party (LPD) headquarters after he was elected as the party president in Tokyo, Japan September 29, 2021. Du Xiaoyi/Pool via REUTERS
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Afghan deportations Iran
Afghan nationals, who were deported from Iran, wait to board a bus upon their arrival at the Islam Qala border crossing in Herat province, Afghanistan, July 22, 2025. REUTERS/Sayed Hassib
signal-2025-08-28-165306_002

Millions of Afghans forced to return to a hellscape the world forgot

Middle East

It’s been a dark summer for Afghans. When Israel launched the 12-day war with Iran on June 13, Tehran used it as a pretext to scapegoat some of its most vulnerable residents.

In its latest wave of deportations, an estimated 700,000 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan since Iran began expulsions that month. Then on July 31, Pakistan launched the third phase of its “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan,” announced in 2023, arresting and detaining Afghans across the country.

keep readingShow less
Thomas Barrack
Top image credit: U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and U.S. special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack speaks after meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon August 26, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Tom Barrack has an offer that Lebanon simply can't refuse

Middle East

A tale of two envoys recently unfolded in Beirut, encapsulating the crossroads at which Lebanon now stands. Tanned and sporting a pink tie, the U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack arrived with Deputy Special Presidential Envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus in mid-August. Their meetings with top Lebanese officials underscored Washington’s insistence that lasting stability in Lebanon depends on consolidating state authority, and disarming Hezbollah.

Days earlier, Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council, had departed, leaving a message equally blunt but diametrically opposed: Hezbollah’s arms are a red line and are necessary tools for its “resistance” to Israel. These visits represent the opposing magnetic poles pulling at the country.

Lebanon is reeling from a confluence of catastrophes. A devastating scuffle with Israel last year decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership and ravaged its strongholds. Compounding this military blow was a strategic amputation: the swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which severed the critical land bridge that for decades funneled Iranian arms and support to Iran’s most prized regional proxy. Into this vortex has stepped Barrack, a 40-year friend of Donald Trump and a businessman by trade, embodying a U.S. strategy that is quintessentially Trumpian in its DNA.

keep readingShow less
Afghanistan withdrawal
Lloyd Austin, Kenneth McKenzie, and Mark Milley in 2021. (MSNBC screengrab)

Turns out leaving Afghanistan did not unleash terror on US or region

Military Industrial Complex

It will be four years since the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan on Aug. 30, 2021, ending a nearly 20-year occupation that could serve as a poster child for mission creep.

What began in October 2001 as a narrow intervention to destroy al-Qaeda, the terrorist group that perpetrated the 9/11 attacks, and topple the Taliban government for refusing to hand over al-Qaeda’s leader, Osama bin Laden, morphed into an open-ended nation-building operation that killed 2,334 U.S. military personnel and wounded over 20,000 more.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.