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Diplomacy Watch: Russia dumps on Trump team’s deal ideas

Moscow says it is less than enamored by NATO moratoriums and peacekeeper plans

Analysis | QiOSK

President-elect Donald Trump has made Ukraine peace talks a focus of his foreign policy, previously saying he’ll get a Ukraine deal “within 24 hours” and readying his envoy Keith Kellogg for a fact finding/listening tour of Ukraine and European capitals first thing after inauguration.

But Russian officials don’t appear all together convinced by ideas that Trump and his team have been putting out in circulation, suggesting a steep hill to climb regarding Ukraine negotiations.

Namely, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov posits that some of these proposals, if implemented, will simply pass the war effort on to Europeans while failing to address the conflict’s root causes.

“Judging from numerous leaks and Donald Trump’s interview with Time magazine on December 12, [the Trump team’s] idea is to suspend hostilities along the line of contact and transfer responsibility for confrontation with Russia to the Europeans,” Lavrov said in an interview with Russian News Agency TASS.

“We are not happy, of course, with the proposals made by members of the Trump team to postpone Ukraine's admission to NATO for 20 years and to station British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.”

The idea of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine has reportedly been floated several times among the Trump team and European officials in recent months. “As long as Ukraine is not in NATO, this aspect can be considered,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky had said, while emphasizing NATO membership was the only way to ensure Ukraine’s security against future attacks from Russia.

According to Lavrov, Russia instead wants agreements “that would eliminate the root causes of the conflict and seal a mechanism precluding the possibility of their violation." Lavrov also said Russia is open to restoring relations, but the U.S. must make the first move since it cut them off at the start of the war.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is only shelling out more Ukraine aid on its way out, announcing $5.9 billion in military assistance and budget support on December 30. This includes HAWK air defense munitions, Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), Stinger missiles, and various ammunition packages.

“I’ve directed my Administration to continue surging as much assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “At my direction, the United States will continue to work relentlessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in this war over the remainder of my time in office.”

In other Ukraine war news this week:

As of January 1, Russia’s state-owned energy company Gazprom has halted gas supplies to Moldova amid a debt dispute between the two countries. Russia says Moldova owes $709 million; Moldova claims it owes $8.6 million, with former Energy Minister Victor Parlicov charging that "the Kremlin's real goal here is to destabilise Moldova and plunge it into chaos.” According to AP, Moldovans are bracing for possible energy shortages; the country has declared a state of emergency.

More broadly, Ukraine has halted Russian gas exports to Europe by refusing to renew relevant transit agreements, according to the New York Times. Ending an era of Russian dominance in the European gas market, Zelensky hailed the halt as “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats” on X. The European Commission says the EU is prepared for the expected change, yet European gas prices are already soaring in light of the halt. Hungary and Slovakia, which had relied on the now-closed route for nearly two-thirds of 2023’s gas demand, are likely to be among the most impacted by the change.

An Azerbaijan passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas day after rerouting from its original destination, Grozny in Chechnya, Russia, where it apparently came under fire from the ground. The crash killed the majority of passengers. In days since, how the plane was downed has become a source of controversy. Sources told Reuters that Russian air defenses downed the plane, with U.S. officials telling NBC the defense systems may have misidentified the plane amid a then-ongoing Ukrainian drone attack on the Grozny airport. Russia subsequently apologized for the incident taking place in Russian air space, but has not taken responsibility for it, angering Azerbaijani officials. Investigations by multiple countries are ongoing.


Diplomacy Watch: Trump's 'gotta make a deal' on Ukraine
Diplomacy Watch: Trump's 'gotta make a deal' on Ukraine
Analysis | QiOSK
POGO The Bunker
Top image credit: Project on Government Oversight

Bombers astray! Washington's priorities go off course

Military Industrial Complex

The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


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Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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Top image credit: People line up to buy bread, after Syria's Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in Douma, on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria December 23, 2024. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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