Pakistan's flawed democracy

Pakistan’s political system is commonly characterized as a hybrid regime, incorporating both democratic and authoritarian traits. While there are regular (although sometimes delayed) elections and democratic institutions, such as a prime minister, parliament, and an activist judiciary, the military wields considerable influence in defense and foreign relations. Persistent issues like censorship, restrictions on civil liberties, and extrajudicial detentions are common.

A “elite bargain” prevails among the country’s political and business elites and the security establishment, with the ruling party benefiting the most, while the opposition politicians act as a counterbalance or are marginalized. Notably, politicians critical of the military in opposition tend to support it when in power, prioritizing personal and party interests. This is true for Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan alike. This dynamic has led many, both in Pakistan and abroad, to perceive the military as more reliable and resilient compared to the political parties’ shifting alliances, defections, infighting, and nepotism.

What Pakistan’s security establishment prefers is an elected head of state who is compliant and a robust political opposition that can serve as a check on their power.

However, the ongoing feud between Imran Khan and the military has disrupted this cyclical arrangement. Public criticism and protests against the military by PTI supporters last spring reached unprecedented levels, facilitated by the ease of expression on social media.

Additionally, if Nawaz Sharif becomes the next prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, serving as a political counterbalance, will not be available unless he is released from jail. It is also uncertain whether Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N party will willingly cooperate with the military if they come into power, particularly as time progresses. While a PML-N victory may temporarily appease the military, the absence of a strong political opposition could lead to conflicts between the PML-N and the generals over time.

If PTI comes out on top and the results are ignored, then Pakistan’s democracy will be placed into question and turmoil could follow.

What Does This Mean for U.S.-Pakistan Relations?

Washington consistently communicates that it supports free and fair elections in Pakistan but the public statements stop there. After Imran Khan’s arrest last May, the State Department issued cautious statements, expressing hope for Pakistan to adhere to the rule of law.

Khan’s arrests have been referred to as an “internal matter” for Pakistan which is music to the military’s ears. Some members of Congress have voiced concern but it is not a top priority for elected officials. Imran Khan’s PTI party is quite popular among the Pakistani American diaspora, but the diaspora itself is not large or organized enough to exert real pressure on elected officials. Furthermore, U.S.-Pakistan policy is largely crafted within the White House.

Imran Khan complicated the possibility of Washington providing moral support, even if it were inclined, by framing his removal from office through a vote of no confidence as a U.S.-backed regime change conspiracy. This move heightened anti-American sentiment in the country. The Biden administration is likely cautious about risking its relationship with Pakistan’s military over the fate of one political party led by a perceived unpredictable leader, and a strong U.S. statement is unlikely to benefit PTI figures or advance civil liberties.

U.S. financial support for Pakistan has also significantly decreased compared to previous years. A lesson from the Afghanistan war is that Washington cannot change the decisions of Pakistan’s generals once their minds are made up.

Washington’s key priorities in Pakistan are preventing large-scale conflict between Pakistan and India, maintaining political and economic stability, and counterterrorism. Initiatives like democracy promotion and education are important but secondary. Washington will engage with Pakistan as it exists. This explains why Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Pakistan’s army chief during his visit to Washington last December, even though they are not direct counterparts. Despite limitations, Pakistan has elections, a vibrant press, and civil society. Although election outcomes may be partially engineered, the democratic challenges in Pakistan are not new, as no prime minister has ever completed their term.

A showdown over valid election results could, however, place Washington in a precarious position.