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French president Macron in the desperate hours

French president Macron in the desperate hours

His insistence on a bold pro-Ukraine strategy turned out to be tone-deaf and now his power is on the line

Analysis | Europe

President Emmanuel Macron of France recently warned that “our Europe, today, is mortal. It can die.” While he was alluding to external threats like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and America’s wavering commitment to its European allies, the most immediate danger to his vision of Europe comes within France itself.

Europe stands deeply divided as rising nationalism and euroscepticism threaten to erode the foundations of its post-war unity project. Nowhere is this division more apparent than in France, where Macron’s vision of a strong, unified Europe clashes with growing domestic discontent and a resurgent right-populist movement.

Earlier this month, Macron dissolved France’s National Assembly and called for snap elections after his Renaissance party took a significant beating from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections. The first round on Sunday delivered another victory to the party, which won a third of the vote. The leftist coalition, the New Popular Front, closely followed with 28% and Macron’s centrist coalition trailed in third around 20%.

The populist right is gunning for the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, and current projections for the second round on July 7 show the National Rally winning anywhere between 230 and 300 seats. If Macron’s hope was to cobble together enough support to maintain a ruling majority, results so far show he has failed.

Instead, in calling for snap elections, Macron has inadvertently paved the way for France’s first far-right government since World War II.

This has dealt an embarrassing blow to the French establishment. While Macron was preoccupied with grand narratives about democracy and authoritarianism, a survey I helped lead across the U.S., U.K., Germany, and France revealed that French citizens were far more preoccupied with domestic challenges.

Wildly unpopular policies, from increasing fuel taxes to pension reform, have turned much of the country against Macron. His approval rating has sunk to the lowest level since 2018, when protestors in yellow vests set fire to the streets of Paris. Facing enormous domestic discontent, Macron turned his attention to foreign policy hoping that support for Ukraine would bolster his image as a strong leader and defender of democracy.

But our data showed that Macron’s hardline stance on the Russia-Ukraine war failed to resonate with his constituents. He even suggested sending Western troops into battle, a proposal swiftly rebuffed by other NATO countries.

Our survey confirms that the majority of people in France are eager to end the war, even without an outright Ukrainian victory. In fact, when we asked Europeans whether NATO member countries should push for a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia, “yes” answers were selected more than twice as often as “no” answers.

This was one area Macron hoped to outcompete Le Pen, whom he has accused of being beholden to Vladimir Putin. During her 2022 presidential run, Le Pen advocated for closer ties with Russia and pulling France out of NATO’s military command. But she has since softened her stance — and skillfully calibrated her party’s platform to public opinion. While Euroscepticism remains core to its nationalist agenda, National Rally now supports providing material aid to Ukraine, barring actions that might trigger a broader war.

The silver lining for Macron is that he aligns with public sentiment on European defense more broadly. Our research shows his pitch for “strategic autonomy” resonates with a large majority of Western Europeans who believe Europe should take primary responsibility for its own defense while maintaining military ties with the U.S. through NATO.

Despite these challenges, Macron still has cards to play. The center-right European People’s Party, which holds the largest number of seats in the European Parliament, aligns with his vision. EPP leader Manfred Weber’s enthusiasm for extending the French nuclear umbrella across Europe provides a potential path forward. A strategic alliance focusing on common issues like security could serve as a bulwark against far-right influence at the EU level.

If forced to nominate a prime minister from Le Pen’s party — likely the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella — Macron’s domestic influence would be severely curtailed. Yet this constraint could provide an opportunity. With foreign policy in his purview, Macron has a chance to cement his legacy and impact on his continent’s future.

Macron’s gamble could either reinvigorate the European project or hand power to those who would dismantle it. The irony is that Macron’s bold move to save his vision for European unity and strategic autonomy might be what destroys it.


Analysis | Europe
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The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


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Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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