Follow us on social

google cta
1600px-kassym-jomart_tokayev_and_vladimir_putin_2019-04-03_03

Tensions flare between Russia and Kazakhstan over war in Ukraine

Just a few months ago, Russia intervened in Kazakhstan to help put down a popular revolt. But can the relationship between the two countries survive Russia's assault on Ukraine?

Analysis | Reporting | Europe
google cta
google cta

Behind-the-scenes tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia over the war in Ukraine spilled into awkward exchanges at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where discussions strayed beyond the economy into geopolitics.

Vladimir Putin used the platform to advance the sweeping claim that the entire former Soviet Union was “historical Russia.”

Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of one of its neighbors, the Russian president’s June 17 remarks could hardly fail to arouse alarm in other former Soviet states – like Kazakhstan, whose president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was sharing the stage with Putin.

Tokayev used the occasion to push back hard against territorial claims made on Kazakhstan by some Russian commentators, and to re-state his country’s refusal to recognize Moscow-backed breakaway territories of Ukraine.

The UN Charter is the basis of international law, he said, even if two of its principles are at odds: the right of countries to territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination.

“It has been calculated that if the right of nations to self-determination was realized in reality on the entire globe, over 500 or 600 states would emerge on Earth, instead of the 193 states that are currently part of the UN. Of course that would be chaos,” said Tokayev, a former diplomat who was once the secretary-general of the United Nations office at Geneva.

“For this reason we do not recognize Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. And in all likelihood, this principle will be applied to quasi-state entities, which, in our opinion, Luhansk and Donetsk are.”

Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi had already stated in February that recognition of the breakaway territories was “not on the agenda.”

But Tokayev’s clarification in public to his host Putin was a bold re-statement of that position, adopted as Kazakhstan tries to walk a diplomatic tightrope as its ally Russia wages war in Ukraine.

His comments raised hackles in Russia, where MP Konstantin Zatulin responded with thinly veiled threats against Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity.

“They know too well that a whole range of regions and settlements with a predominantly Russian population have had a weak relationship with what has been called Kazakhstan,” he said.

“We say always and everywhere, including in relation to Ukraine: If we have friendship, cooperation and partnership, then no territorial questions are raised. But if that does not exist, everything is possible. As in the case of Ukraine.”

At the economic forum, Tokayev had already expressed his displeasure over “absolutely incorrect statements about Kazakhstan” made by some Russian commentators.

He did not name any, but there is no shortage of Russian pundits questioning Kazakhstan’s nationhood, making territorial claims against it, or criticizing it for invented offenses such as supposedly oppressing Russian speakers. 

Tokayev may have had in mind a recent tirade by pundit Tigran Keosayan, who accused Kazakhstan of “ingratitude” to Russia after the government cancelled a Victory Day parade last month and urged it to “look carefully at what is happening in Ukraine.”

Keosayan is the husband of Margarita Simonyan, head of the Kremlin-run broadcaster and propaganda machine RT.

She was moderating the awkward on-stage discussion in St Petersburg between Tokayev and Putin, who at one point (and not for the first timemangled Tokayev’s name as he tried to pronounce it.

Keosayan suggested that Kazakhstan was ungrateful to Russia after it sent troops as part of a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) contingent under efforts to quell violent civil unrest in January.

Tokayev used a media interview to reject the suggestion that his country was beholden to Russia because of that.

“In Russia some people distort this whole situation, asserting that Russia supposedly ‘saved’ Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan should now eternally ‘serve and bow down to the feet’ of Russia,” he told Rossiya 24. “I believe that these are totally unjustified arguments that are far from reality.”

Speaking at the economic forum, Tokayev expressed his gratitude to Putin, “who today has comprehensively set out the position of the top leadership, the Kremlin” toward Kazakhstan.

“Indeed, we do not have any issues that can be manipulated in one way or another, sowing discord between our nations and thereby causing damage to our people and to the Russian Federation itself,” he said.

But such talk did little to disguise the fault lines that have emerged in the Russo-Kazakh alliance since Russia began waging war in Ukraine.

This article was republished with permission from Eurasianet.


(kremlin.ru)
google cta
Analysis | Reporting | Europe
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
Top photo credit: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi 首相官邸 (Cabinet Public Affairs Office)

Takaichi 101: How to torpedo relations with China in a month

Asia-Pacific

On November 7, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could undoubtedly be “a situation that threatens Japan’s survival,” thereby implying that Tokyo could respond by dispatching Self-Defense Forces.

This statement triggered the worst crisis in Sino-Japanese relations in over a decade because it reflected a transformation in Japan’s security policy discourse, defense posture, and U.S.-Japan defense cooperation in recent years. Understanding this transformation requires dissecting the context as well as content of Takaichi’s parliamentary remarks.

keep readingShow less
Starmer, Macron, Merz G7
Top photo credit: Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and António Costa, President of the European Council at the G7 world leaders summit in Kananaskis, June 15, 2025. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street

The Europeans pushing the NATO poison pill

Europe

The recent flurry of diplomatic activity surrounding Ukraine has revealed a stark transatlantic divide. While high level American and Ukrainian officials have been negotiating the U.S. peace plan in Geneva, European powers have been scrambling to influence a process from which they risk being sidelined.

While Europe has to be eventually involved in a settlement of the biggest war on its territory after World War II, so far it’s been acting more like a spoiler than a constructive player.

keep readingShow less
Sudan
Top image credit: A Sudanese army soldier stands next to a destroyed combat vehicle as Sudan's army retakes ground and some displaced residents return to ravaged capital in the state of Khartoum Sudan March 26, 2025. REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig
Will Sudan attack the UAE?

Saudi leans in hard to get UAE out of Sudan civil war

Middle East

As Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), swept through Washington last week, the agenda was predictably packed with deals: a trillion-dollar investment pledge, access to advanced F-35 fighter jets, and coveted American AI technology dominated the headlines. Yet tucked within these transactions was a significant development for the civil war in Sudan.

Speaking at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum President Donald Trump said that Sudan “was not on my charts,” viewing the conflict as “just something that was crazy and out of control” until the Saudi leader pressed the issue. “His majesty would like me to do something very powerful having to do with Sudan,” Trump recounted, adding that MBS framed it as an opportunity for greatness.

The crown prince’s intervention highlights a crucial new reality that the path to peace, or continued war, in Sudan now runs even more directly through the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The fate of Sudan is being forged in the Gulf, and its future will be decided by which side has more sway in Trump’s White House.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.