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Raisi

What to take away from new Iranian president's debut

Ebrihim Raisi came out swinging at his first press conference, indicating new challenges ahead for Washington-Tehran diplomacy.

Analysis | Middle East

Iran's president-elect Ebrahim Raisi adopted a tough tone on foreign policy in his first press conference today, declaring that Iran’s proxy armies and ballistic missiles are not up for negotiation, and that he won’t meet with President Biden.

But there are still few signs that his presidency will bring about any changes to Iran's current red lines in regards to JCPOA renewal. Outside these red lines, however, things will likely get tougher, with ultra-conservative Raisi’s election.

Iran has long maintained that neither its regional presence nor its ballistic missiles are up for negotiation. Nor did President Rouhani agree to meet with Barack Obama or Donald Trump. In that sense, Raisi's position is not new.

Nevertheless, Raisi's orientation will likely make U.S.-Iran diplomacy more challenging. While Iran has rejected diplomacy on its missiles, negotiations on missile proliferation have been a theoretical possibility. 

The Rouhani government maintained that the JCPOA was the floor, not the ceiling of diplomacy with the United States. Under Raisi, Iran may de-prioritize diplomacy with Washington, and focus instead on an Iranian pivot-to-Asia. As such, the JCPOA may become both the floor and the ceiling under Raisi, much to the chagrin of the Biden administration who strongly believe that the JCPOA cannot endure unless it is made "longer and stronger."

But Raisi's election has not changed U.S. national interest. It is still pivotal to U.S. security that Iran's pathways to a bomb are blocked. Trump has proved that there is no alternative to the JCPOA for achieving that goal — regardless of the name of the President in Iran.

Ebrahim Raisi Banner is hung in June 2021 ahead of recent elections. (Farzad Frames/Shutterstock)
Analysis | Middle East
UNRWA
Top image credit: Anas-Mohammed / Shutterstock.com

Israel bans the last lifeline of aid to Palestinians

QiOSK

On Monday Israel’s parliamentary body known as the Knesset passed two laws banning the United Nations’ Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) from operating in Israel, and in regions under Israel’s control.

This comes months after Israel claimed that members of UNRWA were either in Hamas or had Hamas connections, even asserting that some participated in the Oct. 7 attacks of last year. An independent review found that claims of widespread Hamas infiltration had no basis, but that some members did hold sympathies for Hamas, even as the organization pushed heavily for neutrality. These claims led the United States and other donor countries to pause funding to the organization back in January of 2024. Some of those countries have since reinstated funding.

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Michael McCaul
Top image credit: Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX), Committee Chair, questions witnesses during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the generational challenge of the Chinese Communist Party, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, February 28, 2023. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA)

Some 80% of Hill 'experts' take $$ from arms makers, foreign interests

Military Industrial Complex

A video on Congress.gov, overlayed with an uplifting guitar melody, explains what committee hearings are supposed to do; A hearing “provides a forum at which committee members and the public can hear about the strengths and weaknesses of a proposal from selected parties,” the disembodied voice says.

If only it were that simple.

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The day after Israeli strikes on Iran: What's next
Top photo credit: A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS

The day after Israeli strikes on Iran: What's next

QiOSK

The Israeli attack is over, but the outcome remains unclear. Tehran is downplaying it — even mocking it — which may be more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran.

Just as Israel kept the damage of Iran's Oct. 1 strikes secret, Iran will likely not disclose the full picture of Israel's strike, although Tehran has reported that the strikes killed two members of Iran's regular army (which is separate from the IRGC).

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