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Climate talk invite the one good thing this week in US-Russia-China relations

Future cooperation between these major carbon producing powers is essential, and frankly, would be refreshing.

Asia-Pacific
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President Biden's invitation to the Chinese and Russian presidents to attend climate talks is welcome news. Global climate cooperation among all of the world's major economies and carbon emitters is absolutely essential if the world is to realize its goals of limiting global warming below catastrophic levels.

Furthermore, Biden's invitation to Putin and Xi accompanies his emphasis on climate change progress in discussions with allies and partners, including the Quad nations of Japan, India, and Australia. It is encouraging that Biden is not counterproductively dividing the world into democracies and autocracies in the context of vital coordination on a globally shared interest such as climate change.

Moving forward, the United States should combine multilateral coordination and negotiation with bilateral initiatives between the United States and other major economic powers, especially China, given that country's status as the largest emitter of new carbon dioxide. Such initiatives should include efforts by the U.S. and China to coordinate joint carbon emissions reduction and clean transportation targets, as well as to pledge joint investments in research, development, and deployment of deep decarbonization technologies that will help the developing world to grow their economies in a less carbon-intensive way.

The climate change regime is one of the many aspects of the global order where U.S.-China coordination and cooperation is essential, as a means of ensuring that economic competition remains healthy and constructive, rather than devolving into beggar-thy-neighbor trade restrictions that actually inhibit innovation in green technology.


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Asia-Pacific
Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

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Polymarket Iran War
Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

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Indonesia stock exchange
Top photo credit: (Shutterstock/Triawanda Tirta Aditya)

Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy

Middle East

The launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could lead to economic and financial disruptions that ripple across the countries of the Global South with devastating effects. And while a quick end to the war could dampen these effects, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has acknowledged that the war could even last up to 8 weeks, and Israel is now reportedly expecting a "weeks-long" war with Iran.

The fundamental issue here seems to be an increasingly expansive vision of American — and particularly Israeli — war aims. These have now gone well beyond Iran’s offer of substantial denuclearization to regime change, and some quarters have even more extreme visions like the potential Balkanization of Iran into multiple statelets. Such mission creep on the part of the U.S. and Israel has in turn changed incentive structures in Iran towards an expansion of the conflict to target both the Gulf States and global oil markets, a dynamic that threatens to broaden the conflict and extend it, with profound impacts on the global economy.

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