Follow us on social

Screen-shot-2023-04-18-at-12.55.58-pm

VIDEO: Beebe vs. Daalder on future of Russia-Ukraine war

What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries? Opinions differ.

Europe

On Monday, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs hosted a debate between the Quincy Institute's director of Grand Strategy George Beebe and CCGA's president, Ivo Daalder, looking back at the first year of the Russia-Ukraine war, previewing concerns for the upcoming months, analyzing prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries, and more.

Both debaters believed it unlikely that either side could claim a victory on the battlefield anytime soon, with Daalder saying the question was "Who over time will have sufficient capability to change military status quo?," and predicting "neither side is likely to have that for many, many years. And that you will be in this situation where this conflict and the line of conflict may move back and forth." 

Beebe agreed with this general assessment, but worried that Russia could wreck Ukraine, even if it couldn't secure a clear battlefield win. For Beebe, this risk means that Ukraine and the West should pursue a negotiated settlement, which will require changing the frame through which they both understand this war. That solution will have to address not only territorial questions, but also the security concerns of all involved countries, including Russian fears of living with a Ukraine that is a military outpost of the United States. 

 "Finding some way of addressing Ukraine’s legitimate security concerns, America and Europe’s legitimate security concerns, and also finding a way to address Russian concerns is necessary," Beebe said.

"Unless we are willing to address that, I don’t think there are prospects for a negotiated settlement to this war. But if we are, if we're willing to talk about that, then I think the territorial issue might be able to be kicked down the road (...) and in the meantime, bring this conflict under control." 

Watch the full debate here:


Jessica Tuchman Mathews, George Beebe, and Ivo Daalder at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9y4aXw1kU0)
Europe
Diplomacy Watch Donald Trump Putin Zelensky
Top Photo Credit: Diplomacy Watch (Khody Akhavi)

Macron fails to get Europe to send troops to Ukraine

QiOSK

European leaders met this week at the behest of French President Emmanuel Macron, who wants to solidify a plan to send troops to Ukraine as a security package. However, the meetings emerged, according to the Wall Street Journal, “without a public commitment from other European countries to send troops.”

France and the United Kingdom have been pushing for troops on the ground in Ukraine, and other countries, like Sweden, Denmark, and Australia, have indicated a willingness to do so as well. The main hurdle appears to be that most are apparently unwilling to send their armed forces to Ukraine without the protection of the United States.

keep readingShow less
Donald Trump
Top image credit: Andrew Harnik / Shutterstock.com

The war over war with Iran has just begun

Middle East

The war drums are getting louder in Washington.

In recent weeks, many of the same neoconservative voices who pushed the U.S. into Iraq are calling for strikes on Iran. Groups like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy are once again promoting confrontation, claiming there may never be a better time to act. But this is a dangerous illusion that risks derailing what Donald Trump himself says he wants: a deal, not another disastrous war in the Middle East.

keep readingShow less
Golden Dome Iron Dome
Top Image Credit: Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024 REUTERS/Amir Cohen TPX

Saying the quiet part out loud: All that glitters is not 'Golden Dome'

Military Industrial Complex

As the Trump administration proceeds full speed ahead on its Golden Dome missile defense project, U.S. officials and engineering experts alike suggest it's a next to impossible undertaking.

Gen. Michael Guetlein, Space Force vice chief, likened Golden Dome to the WWII-era Manhattan project, which created the atom bomb. Acting DoD official Steven J. Morani called it a “monster systems engineering problem.” Trump himself compared it to President Ronald Reagan’s 1983 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), or “Star Wars,” a space-based defense system that never made it past the drawing board.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.