Follow us on social

Screen-shot-2023-04-18-at-12.55.58-pm

VIDEO: Beebe vs. Daalder on future of Russia-Ukraine war

What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries? Opinions differ.

Europe

On Monday, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs hosted a debate between the Quincy Institute's director of Grand Strategy George Beebe and CCGA's president, Ivo Daalder, looking back at the first year of the Russia-Ukraine war, previewing concerns for the upcoming months, analyzing prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries, and more.

Both debaters believed it unlikely that either side could claim a victory on the battlefield anytime soon, with Daalder saying the question was "Who over time will have sufficient capability to change military status quo?," and predicting "neither side is likely to have that for many, many years. And that you will be in this situation where this conflict and the line of conflict may move back and forth." 

Beebe agreed with this general assessment, but worried that Russia could wreck Ukraine, even if it couldn't secure a clear battlefield win. For Beebe, this risk means that Ukraine and the West should pursue a negotiated settlement, which will require changing the frame through which they both understand this war. That solution will have to address not only territorial questions, but also the security concerns of all involved countries, including Russian fears of living with a Ukraine that is a military outpost of the United States. 

 "Finding some way of addressing Ukraine’s legitimate security concerns, America and Europe’s legitimate security concerns, and also finding a way to address Russian concerns is necessary," Beebe said.

"Unless we are willing to address that, I don’t think there are prospects for a negotiated settlement to this war. But if we are, if we're willing to talk about that, then I think the territorial issue might be able to be kicked down the road (...) and in the meantime, bring this conflict under control." 

Watch the full debate here:


Jessica Tuchman Mathews, George Beebe, and Ivo Daalder at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9y4aXw1kU0)
Europe
Somalia
Top image credit: U.S. forces host a range day with the Danab Brigade in Somalia, May 9, 2021. Special Operations Command Africa remains engaged with partner forces in Somalia in order to promote safety and stability across the Horn of Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Zoe Russell)

Why the US can't beat al-Shabaab in Somalia

Africa

The New York Times reported earlier this month that recent gains by al-Shabaab Islamist militants in central and southern Somalia has prompted a debate within the State Department about closing the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu and withdrawing most American personnel. At the forefront of some officials’ minds, according to the Times, are memories of recent foreign policy fiascos, such as the fall of the Afghan government amid a hasty American withdrawal in 2021.

There are good reasons to question why the U.S. has been unable to defeat al-Shabaab despite nearly 20 years of U.S. military involvement in the country. But the scale of the U.S. role is drastically different than that of Afghanistan, and the U.S. cannot necessarily be described as the most significant external security actor on the ground. At the same time, the Trump administration has given no indication that it will scale down drone strikes — meaning that the U.S. will continue to privilege military solutions.

keep readingShow less
Hegseth Guam
Top photo credit: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, March 27, 2025. (DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Madelyn Keech)

Hegseth goes to 'spear point' Guam to prep for war with China

Asia-Pacific

The Guam headlines from the recent visit of the U.S. secretary of defense are only part of Secretary Hegseth’s maiden visit to the Pacific. It is Guam’s place in the larger picture - where the island fits into U.S. strategy - that helps us understand how the “tip of the spear” is being positioned. Perhaps overlooked, the arrangement of the “Guam piece” gives us a better sense not only of Guam’s importance to the United States, but also of how the U.S. sees the larger geopolitical competition taking shape.

Before he landed on Guam, the secretary of defense circulated a secret memo that prioritized U.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. At the same time, it was reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Guam would be “a major target of Chinese missile strikes” if China launched an invasion of Taiwan.

keep readingShow less
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.