Follow us on social

Screen-shot-2023-04-18-at-12.55.58-pm

VIDEO: Beebe vs. Daalder on future of Russia-Ukraine war

What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries? Opinions differ.

Europe

On Monday, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs hosted a debate between the Quincy Institute's director of Grand Strategy George Beebe and CCGA's president, Ivo Daalder, looking back at the first year of the Russia-Ukraine war, previewing concerns for the upcoming months, analyzing prospects for a negotiated settlement between the two countries, and more.

Both debaters believed it unlikely that either side could claim a victory on the battlefield anytime soon, with Daalder saying the question was "Who over time will have sufficient capability to change military status quo?," and predicting "neither side is likely to have that for many, many years. And that you will be in this situation where this conflict and the line of conflict may move back and forth." 

Beebe agreed with this general assessment, but worried that Russia could wreck Ukraine, even if it couldn't secure a clear battlefield win. For Beebe, this risk means that Ukraine and the West should pursue a negotiated settlement, which will require changing the frame through which they both understand this war. That solution will have to address not only territorial questions, but also the security concerns of all involved countries, including Russian fears of living with a Ukraine that is a military outpost of the United States. 

 "Finding some way of addressing Ukraine’s legitimate security concerns, America and Europe’s legitimate security concerns, and also finding a way to address Russian concerns is necessary," Beebe said.

"Unless we are willing to address that, I don’t think there are prospects for a negotiated settlement to this war. But if we are, if we're willing to talk about that, then I think the territorial issue might be able to be kicked down the road (...) and in the meantime, bring this conflict under control." 

Watch the full debate here:


Jessica Tuchman Mathews, George Beebe, and Ivo Daalder at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9y4aXw1kU0)
Europe
Friedrich Merz
Top photo credit: German Prime Minister-in-waiting Friedrich Merz (Shutterstock.Penofoto)

German leaders miscalculated popular will for war spending

Europe

Recent polls show the center right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) headed by prospective chancellor Friedrich Merz losing ground against the populist right Alternative for Germany (AfD), even before the new government has been formed.

The obvious explanation is widespread popular dissatisfaction with last month’s vote pressed through the outgoing parliament by the CDU-CSU and presumptive coalition partner the SPD (with the Greens) to allow unlimited increases in defense spending. This entailed disabling the constitutional “debt brake” introduced in 2009 to curb deficits and public debt.

keep readingShow less
Bernie Sanders Chris Van Hollen
Top image credit: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks during a press conference regarding legislation that would block offensive U.S. weapons sales to Israel, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Will Senate vote signal a wider shift away from Israel?

Can Bernie stop billions in new US weapons going to Israel?

Middle East

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been roundly criticized for the security lapse that put journalist Jeffrey Goldberg into a Signal chat where administration officials discussed bombing Houthi forces in Yemen, to the point where some, like Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) have called for their resignations.

But the focus on the process ignores the content of the conversation, and the far greater crime of continuing to provide weapons that are inflaming conflicts in the Middle East and enabling Israel’s war on Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

keep readingShow less
Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?
Top Image Credit: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), foreground, leads a formation of Carrier Strike Group Five ships as Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft and Navy F/A-18 Hornet aircraft pass overhead for a photo exercise during Valiant Shield 2018 in the Philippine Sea Sept. 17, 2018. The biennial, U.S. only, field-training exercise focuses on integration of joint training among the U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. This is the seventh exercise in the Valiant Shield series that began in 2006. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Erwin Miciano)

Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?

QiOSK

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike in Somalia against ISIS targets on Saturday, killing “multiple ISIS-Somalia operatives.” It was the eighth such strike in the short time that Trump has been in office, reflecting a quiet, but deadly American campaign in a part, of the world that remains far below the public radar.

“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade ISIS-Somalia's ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our civilians abroad,” a Sunday AFRICOM press release stated.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.