Follow us on social

49451988248_d67c12d85e_o-scaled

Israel put itself in a corner

Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to survive his three corruption indictments are taking Israel down a very deep hole, one it may never exit.

Analysis | Middle East

Anyone following the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is sitting on the edge of their seat waiting to see if the new Israeli coalition government currently being formed will act on the green light the Trump administration has given it for additional acts of annexation of parts of the West Bank. Another act of annexation or not, Israel has already lost.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 16-hour trip to Israel last week raised red flags for some. Could it be that the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, drunk on power and impunity, was taking Trump’s “Deal of the Century” and implementing it faster than the U.S. administration desires? Clearly, the world did not buy any part of Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” fiasco — not the Palestinians, not the Arab states, not the EU, and not many Israelis and devoted supporters of Israel as well.

The New York Times’ David M. Halbfinger and Lara Jakes reported that “If the United States, with President Trump’s peace proposal, gave Mr. Netanyahu a green light on annexation, it may have now changed to yellow.” (NYT, May 13, 2020). They went on to note that “A key, officials and experts said, was in the timing. [Pompeo’s trip] came on the eve of Israel’s seating its new government, one that appears divided over the immediacy of annexing about 30 percent of the occupied West Bank.”

Then, what was planned to be a Thursday evening swearing-in of the new Israeli government was hastily postponed to Sunday, raising more doubt about what exact influence Pompeo’s trip had in these internal Israeli politics. If it did, it would not be the first time the U.S. meddled in Israeli politics; it would have possibly been the exception if they did not interfere.

Big words

From the Palestinian side, Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said in a Thursday press conference in Ramallah that President Mahmoud Abbas will chair a meeting of the leadership on Saturday to take the appropriate decision.” Speaking about the new Israeli government about to be sworn in Shtayyeh said, “we will listen to its political program that calls for annexation of Palestinian lands and the imposition of [Israeli] sovereignty over the settlements.” The assumption here being if such a political program is announced the Palestinians will act without waiting until July 1, the date the Israeli coalition parties agreed to before implementing further annexation.

Such bravado statements have become commonplace in Palestine, but this time around the Palestinian public’s feeling is that the Palestinian leadership is finally acknowledging that it has reached the end of the Oslo Accords rope and may be in a hurry to finally act, so as not to be hung by that rope once Israel formally lets go.

The European Union, that underwrote most of the past 25 years of U.S. failures in the Middle East Peace Process, is also up in arms about Israel’s possible annexation moves. Hugh Lovatt, a policy fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote “West Bank annexation will bring an end to the EU’s cherished two-state solution. International norms and the EU’s own laws will now need to underpin post-annexation relations with Israel.” He goes on noting that, “Annexation — whether it starts with one settlement block or most of Area C — will cross a threshold which will be almost impossible to reverse back on. The full repercussions that such a move will trigger may be slow in coming, but they are real. This will challenge EU credibility and relevance. It will also undermine the fundamentals of the international rules-based order — in particular, the prohibition on the acquisition of territory through force.” He speculates that post-annexation, “Palestinians [will] live under an increasingly explicit system of apartheid.” It is no wonder that the EU, for the first time, is speaking about possible economic sanctions on Israel if they proceed with any form of annexation.

Who else is opposed to annexation? J Street, a pro-Israel advocacy and lobbying group in the U.S., sent out a mailing where they ask this question and provide an answer, among others, “The majority of the Israel security establishment.” The mailing linked to an ad signed by 220 high ranking former Israeli officers, including former Shin Bet Director Ami Ayalon, former Mossad Director Tamir Pardo, and former commander of the IDF Central Command Gadi Shamni. The ad warns that “Deterring unilateral annexation is both urgent and essential.”

So what?

Could it be that everyone is having a fit which is too little, too late, and for all the wrong reasons?

Whether it is a political survival tactic of a Palestinian leadership fearing total irrelevance, the EU’s supreme concern with being compliant with their own laws, or pro-Israel organizations and many Israelis who are shocked that their hollow motto of an Israel that is “Jewish and democratic” is rapidly unraveling for all to see, they all miss the point. It is past time that all stakeholders take note that the Palestinian struggle for freedom, independence and return home of refugees are the issues. Until these are addressed head-on for the just case they constitute, the conflict will not end.

This is not the first act of Israeli annexation, e.g. annexation of East Jerusalem in 1980. The world yelled and screamed then too, but effectively turned a blind eye even after two UN Security Council resolutions (476 and 478) were passed on the matter of Jerusalem’s annexation. Why expect anything different now from the international community?

If annexation happens, yet again, it makes sense for Palestinians to remain on track in their long-haul struggle and not play into the U.S.-Israel annexation game. Other than the U.S., a longtime accomplice in this ongoing crime against Palestinians, no other meaningful country will recognize Israeli annexation.

Cornered

In due time, even the shrewdest of politicians fumble and Benjamin Netanyahu is as shrewd as they come. In his full-court press to stay out of jail on the three corruption indictments he is facing, he is taking Israel down a very deep hole, one they may never exit.

By making the de facto annexation de jure, Netanyahu has placed Israel in a corner, damned if it annexes and damned if it does not.

If annexation proceeds, as most expect it will, albeit incrementally as is Israel’s trademark, its rogue status around the world will continue to deepen in places unexpected — think Jordan, Egypt, and EU. Worse yet, for Israel, is its flagrant racism, structural discrimination, and blatant disregard for a rules-based world will be publicly visible for all to see.

On the other hand, if Israel wakes up in the eleventh hour and backs off, at least for now, it still loses. The Palestinians, along with the EU I expect, will claim victory in stopping the implementation of the first step of Trump’s “Deal of the Century.”

For Palestinians, we know that as long as we are still standing after 72 years of dispossession, discrimination, and military occupation, we are winning. For the EU, this latest episode of Netanyahu’s pyromaniacs may have awakened a sleeping dragon that may lead to finally seeing Israel being held accountable for its violations of international law and total disregard of common sense. Such accountability is long overdue.

This article was originally published at Medium and is republished here with the author's permission.

Thanks to our readers and supporters, Responsible Statecraft has had a tremendous year. A complete website overhaul made possible in part by generous contributions to RS, along with amazing writing by staff and outside contributors, has helped to increase our monthly page views by 133%! In continuing to provide independent and sharp analysis on the major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the tumult of Washington politics, RS has become a go-to for readers looking for alternatives and change in the foreign policy conversation. 

 

We hope you will consider a tax-exempt donation to RS for your end-of-the-year giving, as we plan for new ways to expand our coverage and reach in 2025. Please enjoy your holidays, and here is to a dynamic year ahead!

President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
Analysis | Middle East
Biden Putin Zelenskyy
Top Photo: Biden (left) meets with Russian President Putin (right). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sits in between.

Diplomacy Watch: Will South Korea give weapons to Ukraine?

QiOSK

On Wednesday, a Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with South Korean officials, including President Yoon Suk Yeol. The AP reported that the two countries met to discuss ways to “cope with the security threat posed by the North Korean-Russian military cooperation including the North’s troop dispatch.”

During a previous meeting in October, Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelenskyy said he planned to present a “detailed request to Seoul for arms support including artillery and air defense systems.”

keep readingShow less
Russia Putin
Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a parade marking Navy Day in Saint Petersburg, Russia July 31, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

Putin’s game is hypersonic: Is that why we can’t see it?

Latest

On Nov. 21, Vladimir Putin presented a huge escalation challenge to the West: are you ready for Russia to strike NATO facilities anywhere in Europe with hypersonic munitions that you don’t possess?

Until Monday, Nov. 18, media outlets brimmed with pro-war activists urging Biden and other Western leaders to free Zelensky’s hand to use longer-range weapons deep inside Russia. Since the summer, bombastic British ex-military saber rattlers have been talking up the decisive impact that Storm Shadow missiles — and by implication, US ATACMS — could make on the battlefield in Kursk, with a range of 300 kilometers or around 185 miles.

keep readingShow less
Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco, Joe Biden
Top image credit: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Angola's President Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 30, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Why Biden is going to Angola

Africa

In keeping with a promise he made in 2022 to visit Africa while in office, President Joe Biden is scheduled to travel to Luanda, Angola in the first week of December for a visit with Angolan president João Lourenço. Originally planned for October, the trip was postponed to allow the president to tend to domestic matters in the wake of Hurricane Milton.

This will be Biden’s first (and almost certainly his only) trip to Africa as president, and the first trip to Africa for any sitting American president since Barack Obama traveled to Kenya and Ethiopia in 2015.

keep readingShow less

Election 2024

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.