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There's a nuclear catastrophe on the horizon in Ukraine

The UN's top atomic official is calling on Russian and Ukrainian forces to halt all military activity at the Zaporizhzhia facility.

Analysis | Europe
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The United Nations’ top nuclear official this week warned about the “very alarming” military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility just across the Dnipro River from the southern city of Nikopol. Russian forces seized control of the site — the largest nuclear plant in Europe — in March and are accused of using it as a shield and a base to launch rocket attacks.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, last week called the situation “completely out of control” and is now urging both Ukraine and Russia to halt any fighting near the facility that has “even the smallest potential to jeopardize nuclear safety.” 

Indeed, the continued fighting and shelling surrounding Zaporizhzhia risks sparking a nuclear disaster that could impact thousands of Ukrainians and Russians through displacement and radiation dangers that will have health impacts for years or decades to come.

Ukraine and Russia must reach an agreement now that permits international inspectors onto the site to ensure its stability and security, and, ideally, creates a “safe zone” around the perimeter to prevent attacks that come close to the reactors or their safety systems. 

Instead of focusing on who is to blame for creating this dire situation, Ukraine, Russia, and the international community need to work together to figure out how to stem the danger of a strike on the plant or its supporting safety systems. So long as this war continues, risks of catastrophic actions, accidents, and escalations will remain, and will threaten people on both sides of the war’s continually shifting lines between Russia and Ukraine. 

This crisis further underscores the vital importance of diplomacy  —even, and perhaps especially, at a time of intense fighting in Ukraine. The United States will play a central role in any eventual peace settlement, and bringing about such an agreement should be a top priority for U.S. officials. 

The alternative is the continuation of a lengthy, volatile war that risks additional, massive suffering and possible escalation into a direct U.S.-Russia or NATO-Russia conflict, with all the dangers that entails.


File photo - Employees sit at the control panel of a power generating unit and a turbine at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Region, southeastern Ukraine, July 9, 2019. There was growing concern on Monday that the ongoing war in Ukraine could lead to serious damage at Europe's largest nuclear power plant. Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station — a sprawling facility on Russian occupied ground that continues to function as the war rages around it. Russian emergency services released images of damage around the plant after both sides traded fresh accusations of shelling the compound. Photo by Dmytro Smolyenko/Ukrinform/ABACAPRESS.COMNo Use Russia.
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Analysis | Europe
G7 Summit
Top photo credit: May 21, 2023, Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan: (From R to L) Comoros' President Azali Assoumani, World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan. (Credit Image: © POOL via ZUMA Press Wire)

Middle Powers are setting the table so they won't be 'on the menu'

Asia-Pacific

The global order was already fragmenting before Donald Trump returned to the White House. But the upended “rules” of global economic and foreign policies have now reached a point of no return.

What has changed is not direction, but speed. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s remarks in Davos last month — “Middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu” — captured the consequences of not acting quickly. And Carney is not alone in those fears.

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Vice President JD Vance Azerbaijan Armenia
U.S. Vice President JD Vance gets out of a car before boarding Air Force Two upon departure for Azerbaijan, at Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia, February 10, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/Pool

VP Vance’s timely TRIPP to the South Caucasus

Washington Politics

Vice President JD Vance’s regional tour to Armenia and Azerbaijan this week — the highest level visit by an American official to the South Caucasus since Vice President Joe Biden went to Georgia in 2009 — demonstrates that Washington is not ignoring Yerevan and Baku and is taking an active role in their normalization process.

Vance’s stop in Armenia included an announcement that Yerevan has procured $11 million in U.S. defense systems — a first — in particular Shield AI’s V-BAT, an ISR unmanned aircraft system. It was also announced that the second stage of a groundbreaking AI supercomputer project led by Firebird, a U.S.-based AI cloud and infrastructure company, would commence after having secured American licensing for the sale and delivery of an additional 41,000 NVIDIA GB300 graphics processing units.

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United Nations
Monitors at the United Nations General Assembly hall display the results of a vote on a resolution condemning the annexation of parts of Ukraine by Russia, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., October 12, 2022. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado||

We're burying the rules based order. But what's next?

Global Crises

In a Davos speech widely praised for its intellectual rigor and willingness to confront established truths, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney finally laid the fiction of the “rules-based international order” to rest.

The “rules-based order” — or RBIO — was never a neutral description of the post-World War II system of international law and multilateral institutions. Rather, it was a discourse born out of insecurity over the West’s decline and unwillingness to share power. Aimed at preserving the power structures of the past by shaping the norms and standards of the future, the RBIO was invariably something that needed to be “defended” against those who were accused of opposing it, rather than an inclusive system that governed relations between all states.

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