This article is part of a special series recognizing the four-year anniversary of the Ukraine War.
As the full-scale war enters its fifth year, Ukraine finds itself in an impossible position: keep fighting or accept defeat.
For a year, they have managed to hold their own in peace talks in which Kyiv is being asked to cede valuable defensive positions and territory in the Donbas in return for questionable security assurances from Moscow. (Russia has made it clear that it will never allow Western troops to enter Ukraine to monitor a future peace deal.) They will, as President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, fight on if necessary. But how long can Ukraine keep it up?
The balance of forces
The basic arithmetic behind the conflict is straightforward. The Russian population is four times larger than that of Ukraine. The Russian economy is 10 times larger, and the Russians were preparing for war for years. So in the long term, the odds are stacked in Russia’s favor.
However, the economy of the European Union is 10 times that of Russia, and that of the U.S. is 15 times larger. So as long as Ukraine’s Western partners keep it supplied with money and weapons, Ukraine has a fighting chance of staving off the Russian assault. But despite an 80% increase in defense spending in Europe since 2021, Russia is still producing four times as much ammunition as NATO and the U.S. has curtailed much of its aid beyond what was pledged during the last administration.
Russia has over 5,000 nuclear weapons, and has repeatedly threatened to use them if it decides there is an "existential" threat to its security. That means the Western powers have been unwilling to commit their own troops to the conflict. Russia meanwhile, has brought in 14,000 soldiers from North Korea and also recruited mercenaries from Nepal to South Africa, with more than 1,000 coming from Kenya.
Staying in the game
Ukraine can take heart from the fact that it defied the odds and has survived four years of war against a much larger, better armed and more ruthless adversary. It prevented the Russians from taking Odesa and occupying the north coast of the Black Sea. It sank one third of the Russian Black Sea fleet, including its flagship, the cruiser Moskva. In fall 2022 Ukraine recaptured half the territory taken by the Russians in the initial assault.
In August 2024 Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the Russian Federation, seizing territory in Kursk province for several months (before being expelled). It has repeatedly struck air bases, arms factories, and oil refineries deep inside Russian territory.
Technology has been a factor in leveling the playing field, to a degree. Ukraine’s deployment of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles helped to blunt the initial Russian assault, and their early and effective use of drones for surveillance and strikes was key to their pushback of Russian forces in fall 2022. After a slow start Russia has also developed effective drone forces, and always had strong electronic warfare capacity.
Access to U.S. satellite surveillance and communication systems such as Starlink has been a decisive advantage for the Ukrainians. These new technologies have shifted the advantage back towards the defending forces, which means that Russia is now having to pay dearly for its incremental territorial gains in Donbas. Russia has captured less than 1.5% of Ukrainian territory since 2024, at a steep cost. As Michael Kofman likes to put it, Putin’s political goals have consistently exceeded Russia’s military capabilities.
A war of attrition
Apart from the dead and injured soldiers and the shattered economy, Russia’s relentless assault on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine has inflicted prolonged pain and suffering on the civilian population of Ukraine. This campaign has reached a crescendo over the first two months of 2026, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power and heat as temperatures fell below freezing. One is reminded of the saying of Tsar Nicholas I, that his two best generals were General January and General February.
The mood, by all accounts, is grim. Veteran CNN reporter Clarissa Ward talks about Ukrainian society as “broken,” “at breaking point,” and “desperate for an end.” On the other hand, Ukrainians don't want to believe all the sacrifices of the past four years were in vain. Ukrainian novelist Andrei Kurkov agrees that the mood is bleak, but notes that the Ukrainian people have shown incredible resilience. Ukrainian democracy is under severe strain having endured under martial law since the onset of the war. The country has seen a series of corruption scandals which led to resignations of some of the top officials in Zelensky’s administration.
A July 2025 Gallup poll found 69% of Ukrainians favored “a negotiated end” whereas 24% wanted to “fight until victory.” Those numbers have changed since 2022, when the figures were 22% and 73% respectively. Nevertheless, a December 2025 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reported 75% oppose ceding the remainder of Donbas as part of a peace deal.
The end game
Over the past year, since Trump’s return to the White House, attention has focused on Trump’s efforts to end the war, which many suggest would force Zelensky to accept a land-for-peace deal. Trump has wavered back and forth between frustration with Putin for not cooperating, and frustration with Zelensky and European leaders for not doing the same.
Zelensky, with the support of the Europeans, has maintained he is willing to negotiate in good faith, while insisting that he is unwilling to give up more territory, and wants security guarantees in place as part of any peace. Polling indicates that the Ukrainian public supports these positions.
In recent weeks attention has shifted towards demands that Ukraine hold elections, ostensibly for democracy, but with the real goal of removing Zelensky from power. In January 2026 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “proposals for a settlement aiming to keep the Nazi regime in [what remains of] Ukraine are absolutely unacceptable.”
This is consistent with Russia’s long-term approach to managing Ukraine: looking for compliant pro-Russian leaders such as Viktor Yanukovych, president from 2010-2014. The problem is that the devastating impact of the war has eradicated the middle ground in Ukrainian politics. It is hard to imagine any future Ukrainian president being willing to seek some modus vivendi with Moscow and the restoration of cultural and economic ties. Too much blood has been spilled.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s peace plan reportedly included a clause giving Ukraine 100 days to hold elections. Zelensky was reportedly planning spring elections and a referendum on a peace plan under pressure by the Trump administration. Those reports were roundly dismissed by Zelensky, however, who said there will only be elections when a ceasefire and security guarantees are in place. Experts say it would be impossible to hold elections while the country is still under martial law.
In the meantime, the Ukrainian government needs a total of €137 billion for this year and the next to keep the war effort going and its government operating. In December, the European Council agreed to lend €90 billion to Ukraine over the next two years, but the decision so far has been blocked by Hungary because Ukraine had failed to repair the damaged Druzhba pipeline bringing oil from Russia.
But the main constraint on Ukraine’s war effort is shortage of manpower. Its prewar population of 36 million has shrunk to 32 million due to emigration. There are no official casualty numbers but outside estimates have pegged the wounded at upwards of 600,0000 and killed at upwards of 140,000. Meanwhile an estimated two million Ukrainians have avoided military service, 200,000 soldiers were absent without official leave, and enforcement of the conscription regime has grown increasingly brutal. Ukraine may well run out of fighters before Russia does.
Ukrainians are losing so much — a true, fair negotiated peace will ensure they don't lose more. Four years into the war neither side has won, and both have all the incentive right now to stick with negotiations to end it.
