Poll shows cracks in GOP support as Iran war drags on

Nearly half of Americans believe the war in Iran has made the United States less safe, according to a new poll from Eurasia Group’s Institute for Global Affairs (IGA).

This total includes 78% of Democrats, 47% of independents, and almost one quarter of Republicans. Roughly one quarter of respondents say the military campaign has made the country more safe.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 American adults between April 24 and 27, is the first in a series of surveys from IGA tracking public opinion on foreign policy in the lead-up to this year’s midterm elections.

This survey was conducted amid a tenuous ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Reports on Monday suggested that a resumption of hostilities could be imminent, though President Donald Trump said that would “hold off” on a planned attack in order to negotiate. In a social media post, Trump added that the U.S. was prepared to return to war in “the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.”

In general, Republicans are far more supportive of the war and Trump’s foreign policy than Democrats or independents. Almost half of Republican respondents “strongly approve” of the president’s handling of the war, while another 24% “somewhat approve.” By contrast, only 5% of Democrats and 23% of independents either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve.

As the IGA reports notes, those who disapprove of the administration’s handling of the war may not necessarily have been opposed to launching it. “There are a number of Iran hawks, like former National Security Advisor John Bolton, who are supportive of targeting Iran but disapprove of the administration’s execution,” the report explains. “These critics may take issue with the failure to loop in US allies, Trump’s rhetoric about the war on social media, or a lack of coherent messaging to the American public.”

Despite the strong GOP support for the overall prosecution of the war, the poll also shows evidence of potential cracks beginning to emerge as the Strait of Hormuz closure drives up prices. Almost half of Republican respondents (46%) say that it has been “somewhat or much harder” for them to afford necessities such as housing, food, or medical care over the last six months. Among Democrats and independents, that number is 78% and 61%, respectively.

A large majority of Republicans say the war has worsened this trend. Twenty-four percent say it has affected cost of living “a great deal,” and another 46% say it has had at least some impact on prices.

Americans don’t see a clear justification for continuing the war, according to the poll. IGA proposed six possible reasons for launching the conflict, none of which earned support from a majority of respondents.

The most popular reasons — preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear program and protecting the United States from attacks — earned support from 38% of respondents overall. After weeks of indecisiveness from the administration, it has apparently settled on the nuclear issue as the primary objective of the war. Republicans have largely accepted this justification, with 73% supporting it.

But other goals the administration has floated since the war began in late February — including degrading Iran’s military capabilities, weakening the regime in Tehran, and protecting Israel — received less than 50% support from Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike, and less than 25% support overall.

The poll also shows that the U.S.-Israel relationship remains divisive among voters. Half of Americans think the relationship with Israel does more to hurt than to help U.S. interests, including a strong majority of Democrats (67%), nearly half of independents, and 21% of Republicans. Only 5% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans think the relationship helps U.S. interests more than it hurts.

This sentiment could partly be informed by the alleged role that Israel played in convincing Washington to go to war in Iran. Though more Americans say that the U.S. or Iran are primarily to blame for the war’s outbreak, 24% hold Israel responsible. Among Democrats, 33% say Israel was the primary cause. For independents, the breakdown was almost evenly split among the three countries and “not sure,” though a small 26% plurality named Israel as most responsible.

Perhaps driven by the unpopularity and costs of the war, the poll also finds dwindling support for increasing the military budget. The Trump administration has asked Congress to pass a $1.5 trillion budget, up from $1 trillion last year.

“A plurality of Americans think lawmakers should decrease the military budget (47%), as compared to less than a third who think they should maintain it (28%), and a small number who think they should increase it [from $1 trillion] (10%),” according to the IGA report. “That’s a sharp decline from last October in those who support maintaining current spending (-22 percentage points) with a smaller rise in those who support decreasing it (+7 percentage points).”

At the time the survey was taken, the Pentagon had estimated that the war in Iran had cost $25 billion. That estimate has since gone up to $29 billion, still far lower than most independent estimates.