Vance admits it: ‘The reason we lost is the war’

Wednesday morning, as Democrats celebrated one of the largest midterm blowouts in decades, Vice President J.D. Vance struck a somber tone.

“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote on X, referencing the Iran conflict the Trump administration launched in February of this year.

“If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” he continued. “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

While Vance has long hinted at skepticism toward the Iran war, the comments represent an unusually clear criticism by a vice president of his own president’s policy. The statement suggests Vance sees a need to distance himself from the conflict in hopes of bolstering his future political fortunes, particularly ahead of a likely run for president in 2028.

President Donald Trump acknowledged Tuesday that Iran “was a piece of it” but insisted that he “did the right thing. I would have done it again.”

Indeed, there is little doubt that the Iran war played a decisive role in the Democrats’ dominant performance on Tuesday. According to exit polls, 74% of voters saw the Iran war as a “crucial” or “major” factor in their vote.

In his post, Vance said he spoke with a pollster on the verge of the election who said voters who flipped from Trump in 2024 to Democrats in 2026 cited four key issues above all: ending the war, focusing on cost of living, putting America First and changing our relationship with Israel.

“Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats,” he wrote.

Trump himself appeared to concede that his support for Israel was hurting Republicans by announcing yesterday that the U.S. would stop providing military aid to Israel at the end of 2026.

Initial speculation indicated that Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, who largely avoided campaign events during the midterm elections, has come out looking stronger for 2028 than Vance, who was closely tied to the campaign. “There's one winner tonight on the Republican side, and that's Marco Rubio,” former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) told Fox News Wednesday.

Analysts speculated that Rubio could reverse Democratic gains in Latino communities, which helped propel Democratic candidates to victories in Texas and in several Florida House seats. “There is only one name who can save Republicans in 2028,” said Andrei Roman of AtlasIntel. “That name is Marco Rubio.”

It remains unclear how the elections will affect Trump's determination to continue the war in Iran. As Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute wrote in RS Wednesday, there is reason to believe the president will now seek escalation because of "the urgency borne out of a closing window for escalation, Trump’s own desire for vengeance, and reduced political pressure to push down gas prices by securing a deal."