Trump claim of Israel aid cutoff reeks of midterm desperation

According to President Donald Trump, he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have agreed to end the “$4 billion a year” in U.S. aid to Israel by the end of 2026.

This is the first anyone has heard about this, at least publicly. It will be interesting to see how Netanyahu reacts to Trump’s seemingly impromptu announcement on FOX News’ “Fox & Friends” morning talk show Tuesday morning. The embattled Israeli leader is on the record saying he wanted another Memorandum of Understanding allocating the annual funds until tapering off at the end of “10 years.” He is also embroiled in a live leadership fight in which he may or may not lose his prime ministership.

The annual $3.8 aid package does not expire until 2028.

What is Trump up to here? On one hand, he may be desperately trying to signal to Republican voters on election day that his party is not slavishly beholden to Israel, as a growing clique on his right flank now alleges. Disapproval of Israel — particularly over the Iran war, which has torpedoed confidence in Trump’s ability to steer the economy — is increasing among Republicans. Claiming such a break from Israel now, even if it is just about the MOU, would be a stunning departure from the norm.

Indeed, Trump told FOX directly that it's become a campaign issue. "Why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like an El-Sayed when (Israel) don't need (the aid)?" Trump said, referring to Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

On the other hand, he might be trying to hurt Netanyahu, who as mentioned above, is in the political fight for his life. His support from Trump has been a net-positive in his own elections. A sudden loss of a guaranteed $3.8 billion in annual military aid — at a time in which the nation is fighting multi-front wars, and is by all measure stretched economically — could be devastating. Security is one issue that spans all voting constituencies in Israel, and a loss in confidence could affect the horse trading for building a Likud-led governing coalition.

But is it all smoke and mirrors?

As we have reported on these pages, and the Quincy Institute folks have written about extensively, the Israelis and their supporters in Washington have been working to shift the aid from the MOU model to the dark labyrinth of the Pentagon contracting system. Through legislation (Section 219), Congress is trying to build a new architecture that will “accelerate the US-Israel defense technology partnership, including technology sharing, coproduction of weapons systems, and bilateral research and development across multiple domains of warfare, including biotechnology, autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, cyberwarfare, and more.”

A designated executive agent will be in charge of the relationship, reducing space for Pentagon and congressional oversight. In other words, the billions in aid will still get to Israel, but in the shadows, making the relationship less politically radioactive. In addition, this arrangement could put our own military and national security at risk.

Today's announcement was not lost on critics of Section 219. "If POTUS is genuinely serious about cutting off aid to Israel, he must demand that Congress remove all proposed programs that will give the Israeli defense & intelligence apparatuses unfettered access to our own defense & intelligence R&D," posted Joe Kent, who resigned from the Trump administration over its Iran War and Israel's influence in it, in March. "Protect American interests, put Americans first."

Therefore, Trump’s messaging today has the hollow tang of desperation. If it is true, and he and the Israeli leader have agreed to such an dramatic move, it is even more important to ensure that Section 219 is challenged in Congress when it is raised again after the elections.