Touting battlefield successes, Ukraine leans into peace talks

Ukraine is hoping to reach a peace deal with Russia by winter, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday.

“This is the president's ⁠instruction: to try to end this war as soon as possible ... preferably before winter,” Kyrylo Budanov, Zelensky’s chief of staff, said Monday, adding that the goal is “timely and realistic.”

The comment came a day after Zelensky himself said he wanted serious progress on talks in the next few months, citing his desire to capitalize on recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, including a few instances in which his country’s forces retook territory from the Russians.

The sudden outpouring of enthusiasm for diplomacy appears to be Ukraine’s attempt to attract the attention of the Trump administration, which has evinced little enthusiasm for Ukraine-Russia peace talks since launching a war with Iran in late February. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just two weeks ago that there are “no such talks occurring at this time,” though he insisted that the U.S. would return to its mediator role if it saw a path to “productive” negotiations.

Underpinning the shift in Ukrainian rhetoric is a growing sense among some military analysts that Russia is losing its advantage on the battlefield. Western observers say Ukraine has stopped Russian advances and even retaken some territory, largely thanks to advances in Ukrainian drone tactics as well as improved targeting of Russian radar and air defense systems.

The precise extent of this change remains unclear. Zelensky said that the tide started shifting in Ukraine’s favor last December. But as of late March, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that Russia maintained an advantage over Ukraine in everything from manpower to weapons stockpiles and force protection, according to a report from the Pentagon’s inspector general. In practice, neither side has made major advances in several years.

But, at this point, the narrative may be more important than the reality on the ground. After years of grinding war, Ukraine is making a consequential rhetorical shift. While it once trumpeted battlefield successes as evidence of the need to continue the war indefinitely, Kyiv is now framing military advances as a signal of increased leverage at the bargaining table. The message to the Trump administration is that Ukraine is ready to make a deal — perhaps even an agreement that could secure President Donald Trump a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts at mediation.

Of course, the Kremlin is also seeking to shape perceptions of its leverage, and it has responded to increased Ukrainian attacks within Russia by making its own threats of escalation. Just last week, Russian officials called on Western states to withdraw their diplomats from Kyiv ahead of “systematic strikes” on the Ukrainian capital. Moscow backed up these threats with a series of large missile barrages, including one that killed at least 11 people Monday night.

One could read this as an indication that Russia is determined to continue the war and force Ukraine to submit to far-reaching demands. But another plausible interpretation is that Moscow sees a need to shore up its leverage ahead of negotiations that could end a war that is steadily becoming more unpopular within Russia.

Whatever the case, it appears that diplomacy is now back on the table. According to Budanov, a U.S. delegation will soon visit Moscow and Kyiv for further talks.