On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.
Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”
Ten days into the war with Iran, Arab Gulf states have gone to great lengths to avoid joining the fight. But Iran has complicated their calculations with its decision to target both civilian and military targets in the territory of states like Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Now, hawks like Waltz and Graham are joining the push to pull these countries into war.
At this point, Arab states in the Gulf only see bad options. “The Gulf leaders are just really trying to calculate which is the lesser of two evils — complete chaos and destabilization in Iran or an even more sort of hostile and frightened regime,” said Annelle Sheline of the Quincy Institute, which publishes RS.
If it seems like the war is trending in Iran’s favor, then Arab leaders will have little reason to join the war, Sheline said. “Whereas if it looks like it's going more in the U.S. and Israel's favor, they may decide it's better to just get involved and end it sooner, because they do just want it to be over one way or another.”
Further complicating their calculations are the mixed signals coming out of Iran in recent days. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized on Saturday for targeting Gulf states in the initial response to the U.S. and Israeli bombardment. But he walked back the comments Sunday, saying, “If they seek to attack and invade our soil from any country, we are compelled to respond to this aggression.”
Now, Iran is planning to refocus its attacks on “targets associated with Israel, while attacks on U.S. bases in the region may decrease to some extent,” according to a senior Iranian official who spoke to Drop Site. But “this reduction may not apply to U.S. bases in two particular countries, where such actions could continue,” the official said, without further elaboration.
Regardless of what Gulf leaders decide, “the long-term prospects for the Gulf are not really good either way,” Sheline said.
“They'd built this image of luxury and stability and sort of abundance in a part of the world that was all a facade,” she added. “There will always be a question in the back of everyone's mind: how safe are these places really?”
