Assad falls, reportedly fleeing Syria. What's next?

(Updated Monday 12/9, 5:45 a.m.)

Embattled Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who had survived attempts to overthrow his government throughout a civil war that began in 2011, has reportedly been forced out and slipped away on a plane to parts unknown (later reports have said he is in Moscow).

Washington says it raced (in the words of the Washington Post) to help secure the country by engaging in airstrikes against ISIS weapons stockpiles and operatives Sunday night, and that it "strongly supports" a "peaceful transition" via an "inclusive Syrian-led process." According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken:

"After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope. The Assad regime’s refusal since 2011 to engage in a credible political process and its reliance on the brutal support of Russia and Iran led inevitably to its own collapse," he said Sunday, adding that the U.S. will support international actions to hold Assad's regime accountable for its abuses and atrocities against its own people.

As for the rebels who have overthrown the government, "We have taken note of statements made by rebel leaders in recent days, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions."

Enter Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who had led the shocking and successful attack on Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and other strategic towns and cities in the northwestern region of the country this week. HTS is a Sunni Islamist group once linked to al-Qaida and the Al-Nusra Front and is still considered a terrorist group by the U.S. government (there is still a U.S. bounty on him), though for days, the mainstream media has been reporting that the group has rebranded itself as more moderate.

Photos Sunday morning showed cheering amid Sunni populations that had been opposed to Assad's rule and the victims of his brutal crackdowns over the decade, though the fighting had remained in a largely frozen state over the last few years until this week's uprising.

According to Al Jazeera, "opposition fighters" released their own statement on TV Sunday:

“The city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has been toppled. All the prisoners have been released from the prison of Damascus,” a leader of the group said.

“We wish all our fighters and citizens preserve and maintain the property of the state of Syria. Long live Syria,” he added.

It is not clear, however, how the news is being taken by the Alawite and Christian populations, Assad's support base, in Damascus, and how the new dynamics will affect the Kurdish advances (supported by the U.S.) in the northeast, the Turkish moves against both Assad and the Kurds, and Israel's interests in maintaining its control over the disputed Golan Heights (though there have been reports of Tel Aviv bombing Assad military assets in Damascus this morning and taking over the Golan Heights UN buffer zone ). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called the overthrow of Assad an "historic day."

Russia, too, has been involved in the war all along, and was providing airstrikes on behalf of Assad in recent days.

Egyptian officials out of the gate seemed to warn of factionalism and historically have no love lost for Islamist uprisings. In a statement they urged “comprehensive political process” to establish peace and support for Syria’s “sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity."

Turkey for its part, according to Al Jazeera, has said it is ready to help “guarantee security” in Syria, whatever that may mean. Iran, which has been a military supporter of Assad's regime, is urging against interference in Syria’s internal affairs. “Achieving this requires ending military conflicts as soon as possible, preventing terrorist acts, and starting national talks with the participation of all segments of Syrian society to form an inclusive government that represents all Syrian people,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Weighing in later Sunday, President Biden hailed the demise Assad. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room Sunday. “It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”

As of Sunday night, according to U.S. Central Command, the U.S. has engaged in no less than 75 airstrikes against ISIS targets to secure the northeastern part of the country. The U.S. military used using Air Force assets including B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets and A-10 aircraft, according officials.

“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria. All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way,” Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, said in a statement. The U.S. currently has 900 troops in the country.

Meanwhile, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance posted on X a warning about celebrating when there are Christian minorities in Damascus at risk. "As President Trump said, this is not our fight and we should stay out of it."

(Ret.) Col Doug Macgregor warns that with all of the external interests, the fate of Syria is likely factionalism, if not a partitioning. "In the near term, Israel and Turkey divide Syria to their liking, while Moscow and Tehran prepare for talks in Doha and Tehran prepares for all out war with Israel and the United States," he tells RS. "In the long-run, the volatile mix of Kurds, Turks, Israelis and Islamist Arabs will make the partition of Syria tenuous."

For his part, Trump said on Truth Social Russia had "no reason to be there in the first place" turned the situation into another call for negotiations in Ukraine.

"They (Russians) lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin."

UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK welcomes the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s “barbaric regime” and called for the restoration of “peace and stability.”

This story is developing and we will be updating throughout the day.