Senior Advisor to the U.S. President Jared Kushner and Israel's National Security Advisor Meir Ben Shabbat led a joint U.S.-Israeli delegation to Rabat on December 22, 2020. In the Moroccan capital, the delegation met with King Mohammed VI and other officials, and also signed various MOUs. (Photo credit: David Azagury, U.S. Embassy Jerusalem).
Moroccan normalization with Israel: Temporary deal or permanent peace?

It is premature to assume that the normalization agreement between Morocco and Israel constitutes one step toward a permanent peace in the region.

On June 16, 2021, King Mohammed VI of Morocco sent a congratulatory letter to Israel’s new prime minister, Naftali Bennett. This might not have been surprising as Morocco normalized relations with Israel in December 2020. However, on the same day, Moroccan Prime Minister Saadeddin Othmani warmly welcomed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political bureau chief, who visited Morocco with a high-level delegation. These two events may seem contradictory, but in fact they reflect Morocco’s dilemma in striking a new balance in the relationship with Israel and Rabat’s commitment toward the Palestinian cause. Thus the crucial question is posed: will the normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel help to bring a permanent peace in the Middle East, or will it become another temporary deal?

A normalization wave

On August 13, 2020, former US President Donald Trump announced that the United Arab Emirates and Israel agreed to normalize their relationship. A few weeks later, Bahrain joined the UAE and agreed to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel. On September 15, the three countries, Israel, UAE, and Bahrain, signed peace accords brokered by the United States. At the time, it seemed that an unprecedented wave of normalization between Israel and the Arab countries was about to occur. Indeed, a few months later, Morocco and Sudan joined the list. While these Arab countries claim that their normalization with Israel will enhance peace in the Middle East, each having its own reasons and motives. For example, the UAE and Bahrain seek to strengthen their partnership with Israel for geostrategic, security, and economic reasons. Both countries believe that their alliance with Israel could help them counter Iran’s regional influence, which they believe impacts and threatens their security. They also want to benefit from Israeli technology, particularly in the cybersecurity and intelligence domains, in order to counterbalance their regional foes and to repress domestic opposition. More importantly, normalization with Israel helps these countries to strengthen their relationship with the United States.

The UAE and Bahrain seek to strengthen their partnership with Israel for geostrategic, security, and economic reasons. 

With regard to Morocco, normalization with Israel goes back decades. Both countries had official relations after the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinians in 1993. However, the relations were halted after the outbreak of the second Palestinian intifada in September 2000. It thus was not a complete surprise when Morocco decided to resume its bilateral relations with Israel. On December 10, 2020, after President Trump announced that Morocco agreed to normalize its relations with Israel and to resume official contacts and diplomatic relations between the two countries, Morocco declared that King Mohammed promised to “facilitate direct flights to transport Jews of Moroccan origin and Israeli tourists to and from Morocco and re-open the liaison offices, which had been closed in 2002.” It is noteworthy that one million Jews in Israel are of Moroccan origin and that some 50,000 Israelis visit Morocco every year.

Furthermore, the Trump Administration notified Congress of its intent to sell Morocco $1 billion worth of drones and precision-guided weapons. The United States also pledged to open a consulate in the city of Dakhla in Western Sahara in order to enhance economic and investment opportunities there, according to the text of the memorandum, thus recognizing Morocco’s claim to the disputed Western Sahara.

On December 22, 2020, Israel and Morocco, under the auspices of the United States, began to develop the framework for their overall agreementsFour agreements were signed: the first relates to exemption from visa procedures for holders of diplomatic and service passports; the second is a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in the field of civil aviation; the third is an MOU on “Innovation and the development of water resources”; and the fourth provides for reviving economic relations between the two countries through trade and investment, in addition to negotiating other agreements that frame these relations.

Morocco’s impetuses for normalization with Israel

Normalization between Morocco and Israel can be described as a trade-off that would expand Israel’s acceptance among its Arab neighbors in exchange for economic, geostrategic, and political benefits for Rabat. Moroccan officials believe that normalization with Israel boosts their country’s regional and global influence. First, Morocco’s normalization with Israel is a key component of a deal signed on December 10, 2020 by Rabat and Washington in which the latter recognized the former’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. To be sure, the conflict over the Western Sahara has been a priority for Morocco’s foreign policy for decades. At the same time, the two countries signed two MOUs in which the United States pledged to invest $3 billion in Morocco and the Sahara region. By recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara, Trump handed Rabat a gift it had been eyeing for decades.

Morocco’s normalization with Israel is a key component of a deal signed on December 10, 2020 by Rabat and Washington in which the latter recognized the former’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. 

A second incentive is that the trilateral relationship among Rabat, Washington, and Tel Aviv could strengthen Morocco’s regional position in North Africa, particularly with regard to the political and strategic competition with Algeria. Before leaving office in January, the Trump Administration proposed selling as much as $1 billion in arms to Morocco, including four weapons-capable MQ-9 Reaper drones along with laser-guided munitions. It also pledged to open the consulate in Dakhla—a clear invitation to other countries to establish their own consulates in the region, thus aiding Morocco in asserting its sovereignty.

Third, officials in Rabat believe that America’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara would put more pressure on other countries, particularly those in Europe, to follow suit. Therefore, it is not surprising that Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said that the European Union should get out of its “comfort zone” and support Rabat’s offer of autonomy for Western Sahara within the framework of the Moroccan state.

Fourth, Morocco aims to strengthen its economic collaboration with Israel, which has been growing over the past few years. According to some Israeli reports, Morocco is in the top four African nations from which Israel imports goods, and it is ninth in exports with $149 million worth of trade between 2014 and 2017. Furthermore, the energy sector is another area where both countries could collaborate as Morocco does not have many energy resources and would like to expand its use of renewable energy, as it has been importing about 90 percent of its energy needs since 2013. Israel also exports natural gas as well as technical expertise in the field of solar energy. With its agricultural, forestry, and fishing sector, which contributes 15 percent to the gross domestic product and employs some 45 percent of the workforce, Morocco can be a huge market for Israel’s agricultural technology.

Finally, the military collaboration between Morocco and Israel has been growing over the past few decades and it is expected to continue to increase after the normalization. According to some reports, the Moroccan air force acquired three Heron drones for $50 million in 2013 that were manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. They were delivered to Morocco through France and have been used in the Western Sahara.

A gamble without guarantees

Despite the gains Morocco might achieve from normalization with Israel, the step remains a high-risk gamble because it does not necessarily achieve Morocco’s interests as much as it achieves Israel’s. History bears witness to that. For example, normalization between Israel and Egypt has not resulted in the improvement of socioeconomic conditions in both countries. The case of Israel and Jordan is similar. In fact, these conditions have worsened during the past four decades. While it is true that normalization helped these authoritarian regimes to remain in power, it also created a huge gap with their own people, who still reject the normalization. It is likely that Morocco will face the same fate, as most Moroccans are against the move. According to the latest (2019-2020) Arab Opinion Index from the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar, about 88 percent of Moroccans oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel, and 70 percent see the Palestinian issue as one that concerns all Arabs. Therefore, several Moroccan organizations and activists criticized the decision to normalize relations with Israel and rejected the agreement.

Despite the gains Morocco might achieve from normalization with Israel, the step remains a high-risk gamble because it does not necessarily achieve Morocco’s interests as much as it achieves Israel’s. 

It is important to note that for decades, Morocco was viewed as a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause especially because it served as chair of the Jerusalem Committee, which was formed in 1975 by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to protect Jerusalem from Israeli colonization and settlements. Morocco’s image in the Arab world could now suffer as a result of the normalization.

Furthermore, the United States’ unilateral recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara can be costly and complicates the issue. In fact,  Trump’s proclamation spurred a lot of domestic criticism in Morocco,  the United Nations, and American allies in Africa and beyond as it adds more fuel to a highly contested and disputed issue. In April, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita during a phone call that the Biden Administration does not intend to back down from recognizing the “Moroccan Sahara.” However, while the Biden Administration did not overturn Trump’s proclamation, it is not expected to provide diplomatic or political support to Morocco in the UN Security Council regarding this issue.

Managing the damage

After the recent Israeli attack on Gaza which left 256 Palestinians dead, among them 66 children, and almost 2,000 injured, Morocco’s normalization with Israel came into question. Some Arab pundits believe the attack was a result of the recent wave of normalization between Israel and Arab states, including Morocco, as it gave Israel political cover to continue its colonial policies toward Palestinians. The anger among Arabs, particularly the youth, at Israel’s policies against Palestinians was unprecedented. Thousands of Moroccans protested widely following Israel’s deadly assault on Gaza; they chanted against Israel and denounced the Arab governments that normalized relations with Israel, including Morocco’s.

To quell public anger against Israel and to lessen criticism of its normalization with Tel Aviv, Rabat officially condemned Israel’s “unacceptable” violations in Jerusalem and it allowed protesters to gather and protest against Israel.

To quell public anger against Israel and to lessen criticism of its normalization with Tel Aviv, Rabat officially condemned Israel’s “unacceptable” violations in Jerusalem and it allowed protesters to gather and protest against Israel during the war on Gaza in May. Furthermore, Prime Minister Othmani officially invited Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to visit Rabat with a high-profile delegation; Othmani and Moroccan government officials warmly welcomed them. King Mohammed VI also hosted a dinner for Haniyeh and his delegation in a guesthouse usually reserved for Morocco’s senior guests, despite the fact that the king’s policies on Palestine are closer to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s position than Hamas’s. These were signs of Morocco’s support of the Palestinian cause, especially after the recent Israeli war on Gaza.

Peace in the Middle East will not be achieved as long as the root causes of the Palestinian issue are not addressed, even if all the Arab states normalized relations with Israel. Therefore, it is premature to assume that the normalization agreement between Morocco and Israel constitutes one step toward a permanent peace in the region. This is a fact that domestic, regional, and global actors need to realize and recognize.

This article has been republished with permission from Arab Center DC.

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