Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1385225006-scaled

Joe Biden should not try to out-hawk Trump on Venezuela

There's a more constructive way forward that doesn't involve the military or incendiary rhetoric.

Analysis | Washington Politics

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s recent tweet regarding President Trump’s Venezuela policy has received some attention in the last week. Trump’s suggestion in an interview with Axios that he would be open to meeting with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro led Biden to suggest that Trump “admires thugs and dictators like Nicolas Maduro,” but that he [Biden] “will stand with the Venezuelan people and for democracy.” The tweet raised concern that Biden might be undertaking a strategic effort at triangulation, burnishing his foreign policy credentials by trying to out-hawk Trump on Venezuela.

It is not a negligible fear as the Venezuela tragedy fits well with the liberal internationalism that has served to justify military interventions by Democratic administrations in the past. The Maduro government has presided over a governance disaster that has forced over 5 million Venezuelans to leave and which could get dramatically worse if the COVID-19 pandemic surges out of control.

Maduro has not only undermined democratic institutions, he has repressed protestors, and jailed, tortured and disappeared opponents in what could qualify as “crimes against humanity.” As such, Venezuela might seem ripe for an intervention justified in terms of the “responsibility to protect.”

But whether it is animated by a revived Monroe doctrine or liberal internationalism, military intervention in Venezuela would be disastrous, looking more like Iraq or Libya than Panama or Kosovo. Venezuela’s well-equipped armed forces, wide array of non-state armed actors, and a small but dedicated core of Maduro supporters would almost certainly guarantee a long and bloody insurgent conflict.

So what would be a more productive policy direction for a Biden administration to take? The “hands off” approach that some advocate is not responsible. The foundation of sovereignty in democracies is the vote, facilitated by and aggregated through independent electoral mechanisms. It is through elections that citizens can control their government — choosing the leaders they want, throwing out those they don’t. Venezuelans would love to solve this crisis on their own at the voting booth; but they can’t because their country’s electoral institutions have been undermined by the Maduro government.

It is precisely because the Venezuelan people have lost sovereignty over their government that they need international support. On this point the Trump administration has been correct; but its “maximum pressure” approach has made U.S. policy itself part of the problem, rather than the solution.

The first task for a Biden administration would be to take military intervention off the table. While the idea that negotiation needs to be backed up by a credible threat of force seems intuitive, in practice it divides the Venezuelan opposition and undermines their commitment to negotiation and politics more broadly. When government opponents think there is a military option available, a significant segment of them will see engaging in political mobilization of any kind as imprudent at best, as treason at worst. As long as the military option is on the table, the Venezuelan opposition will be divided and unable to put unified pressure on the Maduro regime.

This is an iteration on a theme. One of the most important impacts of U.S. interventions in Latin America over the twentieth century was to reduce state responsiveness to the region’s radical inequalities. With confidence that the U.S. would intervene if they were threatened by the impoverished masses or politicians who mobilized them, Latin America’s political elites have been obstinately resistant to demands for change. The same thing is happening today. While polls consistently show that the majority of Venezuelans support a negotiated settlement, opposition leaders are not fully committed.

U.S.-imposed sectoral economic sanctions are doing more harm than good. While these sanctions pinch the Maduro government, they bludgeon the Venezuelan people, reducing their ratio of power vis-à-vis the government. While economic sanctions reduce the income the Maduro government has at its disposal, they also grind the Venezuelan people into even greater misery and weaken their ability to resist.

The country’s disastrous economic decline began long before these sanctions were imposed, but the data is quite clear that they have dramatically reduced oil production and ipso facto imports in an economy totally dependent on oil revenue. Moreover, the financial sanctions in place since August 2017 have prevented joint ventures that have reduced oil production and Venezuela’s ability to maintain its electrical grid. A Biden administration could negotiate sanctions relief in exchange for some real concessions, such as new electoral authorities or a referendum.

Targeted sanctions on Maduro regime officials should continue. While their effectiveness is limited, they at least provide some restriction on the officials who have undermined Venezuela’s democracy. Perhaps the biggest impediment to negotiation now is the set of indictments hanging over the heads of Nicolás Maduro and his closest officials. Why would any of them want to negotiate an exit if it would mean an entrance into a U.S. federal prison? Indictments cannot be rolled back, but in Colombia’s peace agreement, for example, the Colombian government assured FARC leaders they would not be extradited to the U.S. for any crimes committed before the signing of the agreement. However, they would be subject to extradition for future crimes. Venezuelan leaders could be offered hearings within Venezuela, or a negotiated exit from the country.

Perhaps most important would be a robust reconstruction of U.S. diplomacy. A Biden administration would need to begin with the assumption that the United States is simply not in a good position to lead a solution to the Venezuela crisis, and seek to work with allies who are. More closely coordinating with the European Union and Latin American members of the International Contact Group, and seeking to facilitate Norway and other international and regional actors with a track record in conflict resolution, could make future efforts more successful.

Changing the geometry of U.S. foreign relations could lead to new possibilities. Given the Trump administration’s existential threats against it, Cuba has become a stronger ally to Maduro than ever. Re-thawing with Cuba and recognizing that it has a logical interest in access to oil and other supplies, would make it more likely to facilitate a transition. While Russia has been involved for years, when Venezuela became a focus of U.S. regime change efforts it gave Venezuela added value. If the U.S. were to give Venezuela a different valence, that could alter its place in Russia’s foreign policies as well. Lowering hostilities with China would do the same.

Finally, undergirding whatever policies a Biden administration might take should be a change in discourse. Behind the Trump administration’s miscalculations has been an assumption that the Maduro government’s fall is imminent and that a sharp push would provide a quick foreign policy victory. A Biden administration would need to assume that Venezuela is beset by a complex, long-term crisis that will not be “solved,” but which could be re-channeled into democratic mechanisms that will allow the Venezuelan people to exercise actual sovereignty over their government.

Thousands gather in Caracas to protest Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. April 2019 (Photo credit: Helena1 / Shutterstock.com)
Analysis | Washington Politics
Where are the US ships on the Gaza aid mission now?
File:US Navy 030530-N-0000X-002 Sea trials of USNS Benavidez (T ...

Where are the US ships on the Gaza aid mission now?

QiOSK

The Army and Navy ships that have left the U.S. for a massive humanitarian aid project in Gaza are still making their way across the Atlantic, with two still at ports in Florida and Virginia. It will likely take until mid-April for the vessels to reach Gaza and begin building a temporary causeway to facilitate the entry of life-saving aid into the strip.

Looking at real-time satellite imagery tracking military vessels, it looks like the USAV Gen. Frank Besson Jr., an Army support vessel that left Fort Eustis, Virginia, on March 10, has been moored and presumably refueling at a port in the Azores, Portugal, since Friday. It is at the half-way point between the U.S. and its final destination of Cyprus (nearly 5,000 nautical miles total). At an average speed of 10 knots, its journey will take nearly two more weeks, depending on weather conditions, once it gets going again.

keep readingShow less
Pressure on Biden for Gaza ceasefire appears to be working

Algeria's Representative to the United Nations Amar Bendjama speaks with U.S. Representative to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, during a vote on a Gaza resolution that demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a permanent sustainable ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, at U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., March 25, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Pressure on Biden for Gaza ceasefire appears to be working

QiOSK

The United Nations Security Council finally managed to pass a resolution on Monday demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza — the first true indicator that pressure on President Biden to address the war’s calamities is working. The passing of the resolution was followed by spontaneous applause in the Security Council, which is highly unusual. The last time this happened was in 2003 when France’s Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin gave a historic speech against the Iraq war. The applause reflects the immense exasperation with Biden's efforts to keep the war going.

All countries supported the measure with the United States abstaining. Ten countries put forward the measure —Algeria, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and Switzerland — that is, all of the non-permanent members, or “elected members,” of the Security Council.

keep readingShow less
Moscow attack proves Russia — and US — have lost sight of priorities

People lay flowers at a makeshift memorial to the victims of a shooting attack set up outside the Crocus City Hall concert venue in the Moscow Region, Russia, March 24, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Moscow attack proves Russia — and US — have lost sight of priorities

Europe

The Islamic State terrorist attack in Moscow is the starkest possible reminder that despite the war in Ukraine, Russia and the West also still have some of the same enemies.

What the terrorists — ISIS-K, an Afghanistan offshoot of IS, took responsibility — did in Moscow, they have done in Paris and Manchester — and will do (and did do, on 9/11) in New York and Washington, if they get the chance.

keep readingShow less

Israel-Gaza Crisis

Latest